Considering the Brewers' postseason chances following a brutal nine-game road trip to open the second half, I am reminded of Miracle Max/Billy Crystal's assessment of Westley/Cary Elwes in the 1987 classic Princess Bride: they're only mostly dead. And that means they're slightly alive.

In reality, there's no reason to give the Brewers much of a chance. I've been telling that to anyone who will listen since mid-June, including diatribes about the team's bullpen to Target checkout clerks whose only offense was asking me, "Were you able to find everything today?" But then this weekend, it dawned on me -- this team, as flawed as it may be, is still only 5 games out in the National League wild-card race. And none of the teams in front of them scare me one bit.

Do I really think the Brewers will win the wild card? Or even contend for it? Not especially. But it's late July, Carlos Lee is still a Brewer, and they're down five games with more than 60 to play. It's not the Red Sox and Yankees in 1978, but around these parts, that qualifies as a pennant race.

OK, I hear your protestations -- I've been reciting them for the last six weeks. But as bad as they've played, as many games as Derrick Turnbow has blown, as many outs as they've made on the basepaths, the Brewers can't completely back out of the wild-card hunt in a watered-down National League. Does anyone see the Reds running away and hiding? They recently engineered a blockbuster deal for -- Gary Majewski. Or the Giants? Jamey Wright is in their rotation. The Astros? They're more inconsistent than the Brewers! The Braves are probably the favorite at the moment, and they had to go on a tear just to catch up with Milwaukee.

The Brewers' main problem is, of course, the Brewers. Their self-destruct button is worn from overuse. They pulled to within 2.5 games of the first-place Cardinals two weeks ago and promptly closed out the first half with three straight losses to the woeful Cubs. They could have finished a huge 6-3 road swing this weekend, had they not blown ninth-inning leads in each city. And let us not forget the four-game sweep in Pittsburgh and losing two of three in Kansas City.

The most frustrating thing about this entire season is how easily Milwaukee could find itself in the Reds' circumstance. Even at this stage, staying in the race is deceptively simple: it just requires moderate winning baseball. The Brewers don't need to string together a double-digit winning streak like the Twins or three weeks of incredible ball, as the Angels are currently doing. To stay alive, they basically need to win series for a few weeks in a row. Of course, they haven't done that all year.

Houston took the wild card last year with 89 wins, and there's a decent chance that 86-88 victories could be good enough this season. If 87 wins is enough, that translates to a 40-23 finishing kick for the Brewers (prior to Monday's game). It's not likely, but it's far from impossible.

Any string of success starts with a few wins, though. The Brewers don't necessarily have to sweep this week's homestand vs. the Pirates and Reds. But they do need to win both series, establish some consistency and start to take on a winning mindset. At this point, it's almost like the NCAA Tournament -- survive and advance. Play well enough this week so that next week still matters. That's all I'm asking.

To argue that the Brewers still have a pulse in this "race" is limited to just that. I am not suggesting they retain Lee in pursuit of a mirage, nor am I suggesting they dump him to the highest bidder. I am merely saying that while they have him and they're within two good weeks of the wild-card lead, we may as well keep watching. I trust Doug Melvin to make a smart decision based on circumstances and potential offers over the next week.

Whatever happens, I have a feeling the recent three-city swing will feature prominently in the marketing DVD recapping the season. It'll either be used in juxtaposition against the team's fantastic finish, or it'll be the denouement of a poor-selling version entitled "Trials and Tribulations: The Unmet Promise of the 2006 Brewers. Against my better judgment, I hold out hope for the former.

6 comments about this article. Post a comment / write a review.

Recent Talkbacks ...

Posted by OMCreader on July 28, 2006 at 12:40 p.m. (report)

The Dude said: I just read the news about Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz getting traded. I have been a Brewer fan my whole life. I have been excited with the recent administration changes and I honestly thought the days of developing talent and than watching those players cash in with other teams was over. And than I read the news today. I realize Carlos was going to command a big salary, but come on! All he has done since the day he arrived was put up numbers, and he will continue to do this...unfortunately with another team. What does Milwaukee have to do to retain marquee players? I wonder what will happen a couple years from now when our young talent of today is up for a new contract? I guess we'll trade them for future prospects and watch this vicious cycle go round and round all over again. I guess I'm frustrated, and I hope I'm wrong. I'm still excited about the remainder of the season, and I wish the Cerveceros well.

Posted by OMCreader on July 28, 2006 at 12:10 p.m. (report)

Formerbrewersfan said: It was bad enough they traded Lee for a bag of balls, but they had to trade Nelson Cruz, too? Stay away from the park unless you like to be depressed.

Posted by OMCreader on July 25, 2006 at 10:29 p.m. (report)

Mike said: The Brewers need to fire their stupid manager and hire someone who understands that Geoff Jenkins is washed up and Corey Hart can really hit. It's getting ridiculous out there. Ned doesn't seem interested in winning.

Posted by OMCreader on July 25, 2006 at 4:23 p.m. (report)

Jason said: I am NOT giving up. There is plenty of baseball left. I am still excited about our chances.

Posted by OMCreader on July 25, 2006 at 2:22 p.m. (report)

TosaJim said: entertaining...but will never be better than average....it's the SAME every year.....All-Star break..and downhill from there...with all the "homer" sportswriters saying "wait til next year"...too bad. But at least we have a beautiful stadium to enjoy....and now...It's not going to be fun waiting for and watching the Packers this year....life can be sooooo hard