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Who will win Sunday night at the Golden Globes? (PHOTO: Golden Globes Facebook)

Predicting the film winners and losers at the 2017 Golden Globes

It'll be a golden – and probably quite drunken – Sunday this weekend, as the green and gold will take the field for their playoff matchup against the New York Giants on FOX, shortly followed by the Golden Globes taking the stage that night on NBC.

As always, the Globes – hosted this year by Jimmy Fallon, who I look forward to playing flip cup with Viola Davis and Jeff Bridges in the middle of the evening – mark the first major awards show of the season. But, as always, they also don't actually mean much; the Hollywood Foreign Press Association aren't members of the Academy and don't vote for the Oscars, and with the split between dramas and comedies, many of the expected category rivals come next month won't even facing off Sunday night.

Still, it's fun to watch celebs be overtly glamorous – and even more overtly buzzed – and make some predictions. Here are my picks for who will win – as well as who should win – on Sunday night.

Best Picture - Drama

  • "Hacksaw Ridge"
  • "Hell or High Water"
  • "Lion"
  • "Manchester by the Sea"
  • "Moonlight"

Will win: "Manchester by the Sea"
Should win:
"Moonlight"

"Moonlight" and "Manchester by the Sea" are the two frontrunners here – as well as two of the major three contenders, along with "La La Land," for Best Picture next month at the Oscars – but neither is really the kind of obvious pick the HFPA would be drawn toward. Both are small, emotional movies featuring low-key personal stories, low on star wattage – things the Golden Globes aren't generally known for gravitating toward. I'll give the slight nudge to "Manchester by the Sea" over "Moonlight," but I wouldn't be surprised if maybe the spectacle-heavy "Hacksaw Ridge" (which Mel Gibson's Best Director nom would imply is quite liked here) came away with a sleeper win. This is, after all, the same group that gave "Avatar" Best Picture over "The Hurt Locker."

Best Actor - Drama

  • Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"
  • Joel Edgerton, "Loving"
  • Andrew Garfield, "Hacksaw Ridge"
  • Viggo Mortensen, "Captain Fantastic"
  • Denzel Washington, "Fences"

Will win: Casey Affleck, "Manchester by the Sea"
Should win:
Joel Edgerton, "Loving"

While Denzel Washington would be the most starry pick – and Joel Edgerton would be the most deserving for his sweet, low-key work in the unfortunately overlooked "Loving" – Casey Affleck's devastatingly human, quietly affecting turn in "Manchester by the Sea" has been cleaning up all over early awards season ... and actually all the way since last January when it premiered at Sundance. That long-running hype train won't stop here.

Best Actress - Drama

  • Amy Adams, "Arrival"
  • Jessica Chastain, "Miss Sloane"
  • Ruth Negga, "Loving"
  • Natalie Portman, "Jackie"
  • Isabelle Huppert, "Elle"

Will win: Natalie Portman, "Jackie"
Should win:
Ruth Negga, "Loving"

I would love to see Ruth Negga win for "Loving," a beautifully human and tender performance, with eyes that speak volumes, in an equally human and tender film that refuses to lose sight of the drawn-to-scale people stuck in its history-making fight – much to its disadvantage here in awards season. But this is a two-person race between Natalie Portman in "Jackie" and Emma Stone in "La La Land," and you may have noticed only one of those names is up there.

Best Picture - Musical or Comedy

  • "20th Century Women"
  • "Deadpool"
  • "Florence Foster Jenkins"
  • "La La Land"
  • "Sing Street"

Will win: "La La Land"
Should win:
"Sing Street"

I wouldn't be gobsmacked if "Deadpool" came away the winner here. When you nominate "The Tourist" for Best Picture, anything is possible. "Deadpool" is the kind of big, starry, splashy, aggressively fun name that could score big – and its recent Writers Guild nomination tells me the love for it is much deeper than some may think. But "La La Land" is quite the crowdpleaser itself, and it also has more cred, something the Golden Globes have cared more about in recent years. A tighter race than maybe expected, but Damien Chazelle's lovely Los Angeles confection dances into the winner's circle.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy

  • Colin Farrell, "The Lobster"
  • Ryan Gosling, "La La Land"
  • Hugh Grant, "Florence Foster Jenkins"
  • Jonah Hill, "War Dogs"
  • Ryan Reynolds, "Deadpool"

Will win: Ryan Reynolds, "Deadpool"

Should win: Ryan Gosling, "La La Land" "The Nice Guys"

Fun fact: "Deadpool" came out almost 11 months ago, and Ryan Reynolds is still doing press and magazine shoots campaigning for it. Most Oscar nominees would love to have just half of that longevity in awards season. Reynolds is a star, a populist-leaning surprise (which the Golden Globes love to throw in one or two) and a guaranteed fun speech; they'll congratulate him here for finally breaking through into superstardom this past year.

Meanwhile, while the other Ryan is delightful in "La La Land," he won't win – mostly because he keeps getting nominated for the wrong movie. His real breakthrough came in "The Nice Guys," where his drunken banter charms much more than his dance moves. "Charms" might not be the right word for a movie that darkly funny, though ...

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy

  • Annette Bening, "20th Century Women"
  • Lily Collins, "Rules Don't Apply"
  • Hailee Steinfeld, "The Edge of Seventeen"
  • Emma Stone, "La La Land"
  • Meryl Streep, "Florence Foster Jenkins"

Will win: Emma Stone, "La La Land"

Should win: Hailee Steinfeld, "The Edge of Seventeen"

As mentioned in the other Best Actress category, this race is between Natalie Portman and Emma Stone – and only Stone is amongst the five above. She wins (though one quick final awards season shout-out to Hailee Steinfeld, who's terrific in the doomed-to-be cult movie "The Edge of Seventeen." Honestly, when you finally catch up with it, you'll be kicking yourself for missing this gem).

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"
  • Jeff Bridges, "Hell or High Water"
  • Simon Helberg, "Florence Foster Jenkins"
  • Dev Patel, "Lion"
  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson, "Nocturnal Animals"

Will win: Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight"
Should win:
Mahershala Ali, "Moonlight" Andre Holland, "Moonlight"

There are very few Best Supporting Actor awards Mahershala Ali hasn't won this season, and while an upset could happen, I imagine the Golden Globes will want to throw "Moonlight" some love somewhere. This will probably be the spot.

In related "Moonlight" thoughts, it's a shame awards season and the politics of it all means that Andre Holland's sensual and mesmerizing turn in the final third of Barry Jenkins' hauntingly human and hypnotic film has gone mostly unappreciated. Having two nominees in the same category is typically a good way to split the votes and lose, so as campaign strategy, it makes sense for the studio put their efforts behind just one of their fine actors, but Holland delivers just as indelible of a performance. Hell, everyone in "Moonlight" does.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Viola Davis, "Fences"
  • Naomie Harris, "Moonlight"
  • Nicole Kidman, "Lion"
  • Octavia Spencer, "Hidden Figures"
  • Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"

Will win: Viola Davis, "Fences"
Should win:
Michelle Williams, "Manchester by the Sea"

Michelle Williams just devastates in her few scenes in "Manchester by the Sea," but ever since Viola Davis and "Fences" decided to campaign her as Supporting Actress (as opposed to joining the Stone-Portman fracas in Actress), she's been the one to beat. She'll win Sunday night – and just about every other awards night from here until late February.

Best Director

  • Damien Chazelle, "La La Land"
  • Tom Ford, "Nocturnal Animals"
  • Mel Gibson, "Hacksaw Ridge"
  • Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"
  • Kenneth Lonergan, "Manchester by the Sea"

Will win: Damien Chazelle, "La La Land"

Should win: Barry Jenkins, "Moonlight"

If history has taught me anything, it's that a battle between Best Directing (Jenkins' smooth, stellar work in "Moonlight") and Most Directing (Chazelle's swooning, showstopping bravado in "La La Land") typically ends with the latter on top. Also: something about it repeating itself.

Best Screenplay

  • "Hell or High Water"
  • "La La Land"
  • "Manchester by the Sea"
  • "Moonlight"
  • "Nocturnal Animals"

Will win: "Manchester by the Sea"
Should win: "Hell or High Water"

It's tempting to give this one to "Moonlight" over "Manchester by the Sea." There's a lot of love for Barry Jenkins' coming-of-age triumph, and for it to come away empty-handed, save for Ali's probable win, seems wrong. But "Manchester" is also a strong candidate, and the film itself is designed to give the screenplay the stage to low-key shine, so I'll give it another win here. Luckily for Oscar voters, these two will be split into Adapted and Original, so they won't have to decide between the two.

Best Animated Film

  • "Kubo and the Two Strings"
  • "Moana"
  • "My Life as Zucchini"
  • "Sing"
  • "Zootopia"

Will win: "Zootopia"
Should win:
"Zootopia"

While "Kubo" would be the surprise hipster pick (and also not a wrong choice) and "Moana" could cause a riff between the Disney nominees, it's hard to imagine "Zootopia" not coming away the winner here. Would you want to disappoint this face?

Best Foreign Film

  • "Divines"
  • "Elle"
  • "Neruda"
  • "The Salesman"
  • "Toni Erdmann"

Will win: "Toni Erdmann"
Should win:
"Toni Erdmann"

I never thought I'd say the phrase "three-hour long epic German comedy," but here we are, thanks to the critically adored dysfunctional father-daughter dramedy "Toni Erdmann." And after Sunday night, that phrase will become "award-winning three-hour long epic German comedy." We live in fascinating times.

Best Score

  • "Arrival"
  • "Hidden Figures"
  • "La La Land"
  • "Lion"
  • "Moonlight"

Will win: "La La Land"
Should win: "Arrival" (or "Jackie")

A large reason why "Jackie" is so good is Mica Levi's haunting score, a sonic battle between horror and elegance that perfectly captures its peculiar tone. Unfortunately, it can't win Sunday night because, well, it's not nominated – and it's so brash and dissonant that I'm worried it won't be several Sundays from now too. Meanwhile, the eerie alien notes of "Arrival" are nominated, but won't be come Oscar night, ruled ineligible thanks to its heavy reliance on the haunting Max Richter piece, "On the Nature of Daylight." So both of my favorites are screwed.

The pick, then, goes to "La La Land." Yes, it seems a bit too obvious to give the musical the award for Best Score, but the actual score – not just the original songs, but the score itself – provides the perfect structure and emotional backing for Chazelle's piece of Hollywood candy.

Best Song

  • "Gold" from "Gold"
  • "City of Stars" from "La La Land"
  • "How Far I'll Go" from "Moana"
  • "Faith" from "Sing"
  • "Can't Stop the Feeling" from "Trolls"

Will win: "City of Stars" from "La La Land"
Should win: "City of Stars" from "La La Land"

Once again, having a musical amongst the nominees and not handing it Best Song seems like an insult of sorts – and "City of Stars" is quite the deserving earworm (I've been whistling it in my sleep, as my very irritated roommate can attest). That being said, there are a whole lot of celebrity options to get on stage, from Lin-Manuel Miranda from "Moana" to Justin Timberlake for "Trolls." It would be very against brand for the HFPA to ignore all those flashy celebs – but it's hard not to pick the musical, especially one this rapturously received, to win all of the music awards.

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