It’s a different kind of NBA offseason in Milwaukee. After a 26-win improvement in Jason Kidd’s first season as head coach, the Bucks are primed to be major players in free agency.
When teams and agents began negotiations at 12:01 a.m. early Wednesday morning, Milwaukee’s front office was already plenty active. That’s what happens when a franchise is heading in the right direction and has more than $16 million available in salary cap room to spend.
While the Bucks have rarely been viewed as a desirable team that’s capable of attracting top-tier talent, seemingly every other report in recent days has included Milwaukee. Whether it’s DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez or Greg Monroe being mentioned, the Bucks have been part of the conversation. That in itself should be considered an accomplishment for Kidd and company.
The NBA salary cap for next season is set at $67.1 million. Milwaukee has $51,005,122 currently on the books for 2015-16, which includes a $2.72 million restricted free-agent cap hold for Khris Middleton.
One benefit the Bucks have is the opportunity to come to a free-agent agreement with another player and then re-sign Middleton. Though Milwaukee has reportedly struck a five-year, $70 million deal with Middleton, the contract can’t be signed until July 9 at the earliest. That gives the Bucks another week to use their cap space to agree to terms with another player before making it official with Middleton.
Milwaukee will find out in the coming days whether a promising roster, a future Hall of Famer coaching on the bench and max-level money is enough to convince one of the prized free agents to actually choose the Bucks. No, it won’t be LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love or Marc Gasol donning Milwaukee’s new green and cream jerseys, but there are plenty of free-agent players who would make a big difference for the Bucks.
Photo: DeAndre Jordan Facebook
DeAndre Jordan (center – Los Angeles Clippers)
Why Jordan will sign with the Bucks: Jordan has been the third option behind Chris Paul and Blake Griffin in recent years with the Clippers. In Milwaukee, he could get more offensive touches and be a primary face of the growing franchise. If the Bucks are able to go from 41 wins to 50 wins, Jordan would get a lot of the credit. It’d be a chance for him to branch out more on his own and see what he could do.
Why Jordan won’t sign with the Bucks: He’s used to playing in Los Angeles. The Texas native also has the option of "going home" and signing with the Dallas Mavericks, or he can go to the other major market of New York and sign with the Knicks. It will always be tough for Milwaukee to compete with that.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Jordan: Milwaukee could offer Jordan a maximum amount of four years and $81 million. It might incentivize Jordan more if the fourth year is a player option, thus allowing him to hit free agency again in 2018 when the NBA salary cap will be much larger. The Clippers can sign Jordan to a five-year, $109 million deal.
Chances the Bucks sign Jordan: Five percent
Photo: Tyson Chandler Facebook
Tyson Chandler (center – Dallas Mavericks)
Why Chandler will sign with the Bucks: If Dallas signs Jordan, the Mavericks wouldn’t bring Chandler back for another season. Chandler played with Kidd, so there’s a preexisting relationship there. Chandler, who will play next season at age 33, could take a major leadership role with the young Milwaukee squad. He has a championship ring from 2011, so Chandler doesn’t need to chase one late in his career.
Why Chandler won’t sign with the Bucks: Milwaukee isn’t ready to contend for an NBA championship. Chandler only has a few years left to play and would be foregoing his chance to return to the Finals one more time. If the Mavericks don’t steal Jordan away from the Clippers, Chandler might prefer to stay with a more veteran Dallas team.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Chandler: It might require a three-year contract, which isn’t ideal for a player of Chandler’s age. Perhaps something in the range of $45 million over three seasons gets Chandler to Milwaukee.
Chances the Bucks sign Chandler: 45 percent
UPDATE: Chandler will sign with the Phoenix Suns on a reported four-year, $52 million deal.
Photo: Brook Lopez Facebook
Why Lopez will sign with the Bucks: Lopez played the 2013-14 season under Kidd with the Brooklyn Nets. Lopez might feel comfortable that Kidd would get the most out of him. At age 27, Lopez should be able to cash in at least one more time after this, so staying an important part of a team’s plans is crucial for him.
Why Lopez won’t sign with the Bucks: Lopez might prefer to stay put rather than changing scenery. He concluded last season on a high note and doesn’t have a great reason to want to try his game elsewhere.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Lopez: It would likely take more than $50 million over three seasons. It’d be a major risk for Milwaukee to take on an injury-prone player.
Chances the Bucks sign Lopez: 15 percent
UPDATE: Lopez re-signed with Brooklyn on a reported three-year, $60 million deal.
Photo: WikiCommons/Keith Allison
Why Lopez will sign with the Bucks: Robin Lopez might believe himself to be in a situation where taking the most money right now is the best idea. He’s not a premier center, and his stock is fairly high right now. Like his twin brother Brook, he’s 27 years old. It’d be quite a compliment to Robin if Milwaukee views him as an important piece of its rebuilding efforts, and that could be flattering enough to get him to sign on the dotted line.
Why Lopez won’t sign with the Bucks: If he wants to start on a contending team, Milwaukee isn’t the best option. These should be his prime seasons coming up, and if he leaves Portland, he’d be playing on his fourth NBA team already.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Lopez: Fair-market value would be around $40 million for three years, but Milwaukee would likely have to go up to $50 million to get it done.
Chances the Bucks sign Lopez: 30 percent
Photo: WikiCommons
Why Monroe will sign with the Bucks: Monroe has said in recent interviews that he wants to be the final piece of a puzzle somewhere. Teaming with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Michael Carter-Williams and Middleton sure sounds like it would make Monroe the final important piece. At age 25, Monroe could grow with that group, which ranges in age from 20 to 23.
Why Monroe won’t sign with the Bucks: If he wants to go to a bigger market, such as New York – where he’s long been rumored to end up.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Monroe: A max-level contract of four years and $67 million. Monroe will almost assuredly get that amount no matter where he signs.
Chances the Bucks sign Monroe: 20 percent
Photo: Enes Kanter Facebook
Why Kanter will sign with the Bucks: At 23, Kanter is the youngest player of any mentioned so far. Being that age would fit in perfectly with Milwaukee’s core. Kanter, who is an offensive-minded player, also might like playing with a point guard like Carter-Williams.
Why Kanter won’t sign with the Bucks: Kanter is the first player on this list who is a restricted free agent, so Oklahoma City has the right to match any offer. That could discourage Milwaukee from getting involved.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Kanter: Kanter seems destined to be overpaid. He offers nothing on defense and wasn’t well-liked by his old teammates in Utah. It will likely take a team spending too much in order for the Thunder to decline their ability to match. Maybe Oklahoma City balks at three years, $40 million. Once the NBA salary cap increases drastically in recent years, that contract might not be too bad.
Chances the Bucks sign Kanter: 10 percent
Photo: Memphis Grizzlies Facebook
Why Koufos will sign with the Bucks: Milwaukee can offer a starting job, which is something that Memphis cannot (given that Marc Gasol is arguably the NBA’s best center). At age 26, Koufos is going to want to play more minutes than he has been (16.6 minutes per game last season).
Why Koufos won’t sign with the Bucks: Milwaukee will likely try to use its cap space on a more proven difference-maker. In the meantime, Koufos might find another team who targeted him from the start of free agency.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Koufos: He’s deserving of at least $10 million per season, and a rich offer from Milwaukee of three years, $36 million could get it done.
Chances the Bucks sign Koufos: 30 percent
Photo: Iman Shumpert Facebook
Why Shumpert will sign with the Bucks: Chris Broussard of ESPN reported Tuesday that Milwaukee was one of three teams interested in Shumpert. It’s somewhat of a surprise considering the Bucks have Middleton (assuming he re-signs), new first-round pick Rashad Vaughn and O.J. Mayo all at shooting guard. Perhaps a deal with Shumpert allows Milwaukee to trade Mayo. Shumpert just turned 25 and might want a chance to shine more than what he’ll ever be allowed to if he stays alongside LeBron James.
Why Shumpert won’t sign with the Bucks: Shumpert has had a taste of the NBA Finals and might not want to let that go. There’s also not a starting spot available for Shumpert in Milwaukee unless Middleton departs (which is unlikely).
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Shumpert: He could command a four-year deal for more than $30 million.
Chances the Bucks sign Shumpert: 10 percent
Photo: David Bernacchi
Why Harris will sign with the Bucks: Maybe he misses Milwaukee. Harris will turn 23 this summer and could be part of the young Milwaukee core.
Why Harris won’t sign with the Bucks: Like Kanter, Harris is a restricted free agent, so Orlando has the right to match any offer and bring him back. Harris likely doesn’t want to be a sixth man, which is what he’d be behind Antetokounmpo and Parker at the forward spots.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Harris: It’s at least possible that Harris receives an offer that approaches a max contract from some team. That might be what it takes for the Magic to flinch and let him go. That wouldn’t make sense for Milwaukee to do, unless Harris is viewed as the big man in the increasingly popular small-ball lineups that are taking over the NBA.
Chances the Bucks sign Harris: Five percent
Photo: David Bernacchi
Why Wade will sign with the Bucks: It’d be a homecoming of sorts for Wade, who could play in the BMO Harris Bradley Center (the building in which he starred while at Marquette) before it closes up shop. At age 33, he’d get to lead the young Bucks into the future.
Why Wade won’t sign with the Bucks: He got used to competing for championships alongside LeBron in Miami, and he would likely prefer to spend his entire career with the Heat.
What it would cost for the Bucks to sign Wade: It wouldn’t be cheap. This would be Wade’s last major payday, and he could command upwards of $50 million for the next three seasons.
Chances the Bucks sign Wade: Five percent
Robin Lopez (center – Portland Trail Blazers)
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Greg Monroe (PF/center – Detroit Pistons)
Enes Kanter (center – OKC Thunder)
Kosta Koufos (center – Memphis Grizzlies)
Iman Shumpert (SG/SF – Cleveland Cavaliers)
Tobias Harris (forward – Orlando Magic)
Dwyane Wade (guard – Miami Heat)
