Are the Green Bay Packers a Super Bowl contender?

The question, of course, is asked every offseason. And depending how that year starts for the green and gold, and how teams around the league perform, it’s asked nearly weekly.
The easy – and correct – answer is always (yes, always) "yes."

Why?

Simple. Aaron Rodgers is under center.

Now, we can go around and around if it really is that simple. I mean, there are always team concerns, right? Like this summer. Was Jarrett Boykin going to emerge as the third wide receiver? Who was going to replace Jermichael Finley at tight end? Was the defense going to finally improve?

Once play began, of course, things changed.

This team was pounded in Seattle. We wondered about rookie Corey Linsley taking over at center. They were ineffective in Detroit. We wondered if Davante Adams could be a legitimate third option. We were curious if the Packers could continue to execute the offense without a premier tight end. Would Clay Matthews remain healthy?

But now the Packers have won six of their last seven, sit at 7-3 as they head to Minnesota on Sunday, tied for first in  the NFC North.

And, they are fresh off historic beat downs of the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles in which Rodgers threw for nine touchdowns.

And guess what?

He is back in the MVP conversation.

It’s no coincidence that the team has gone as Rodgers has gone.

But again – is it as simple as that?

Well, kind of.

In the Packers three losses this year, Rodgers has a rating of just 88.3 – 31.8 points lower than his season average, and 46.6 points below the rating he’s posted in seven victories. Interestingly, his completion percentage is slightly higher in about three more attempts per game in losses, but his yards per attempt and yards per game are well down.

He has 25 touchdowns against zero interceptions in the seven wins, and three touchdowns against three interceptions in the losses.

That trend doesn’t hold true to just this year, either.

In the nine games Rodgers played last year, he posted a 113.7 rating in six wins and an 82.6 rating in three losses.

His completion percentage plummeted from 69.7 percent in wins to 58.5 in defeat.

His touchdown-to-interception ratio was 13:3 in wins, 4:3 in losses.

In 2012, the differences were just as stark.

In 11 wins: 68 percent passing, 112.2 rating, 29 touchdowns, five interceptions.

In five losses: 65.6 percent passing, 99.4 rating, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions.

In his MVP campaign of 2011, the Packers lost just twice – Rodgers’ two worst games of the year. In the week 14 loss to Kansas City that prevented an undefeated season, he completed just 48.6 percent of his passes, had a rating of 80.1 and tossed just one TD. In the disappointing playoff loss to New York, Rodgers completed 56.5 percent of his passes for 264 yards and a rating of 78.4.

Even in the Super Bowl year of 2010, the difference in Rodgers’ performance in wins and losses was telling.

In 10 regular season wins, Rodgers completed 65.6 percent of his passes for a rating of 109.1 with 24 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. In the six losses, his completion percentage was nearly the same – 65.9 percent – but his rating was 87.2 and he tossed just four touchdowns against four interceptions.

It should come as no surprise that the Packers aren’t the only team that goes as its star quarterback does.

In Denver, the difference of play in victory and defeat is just as pronounced.

In seven wins this year, Peyton Manning looks like, well, Manning (70.5 completion percentage, 124.4 rating, 25 TD, 4 INT). In the Broncos’ three losses he is decidedly less dominant (61.9 percent, 80.5 rating, 5 TD, 5 INT).

Even in the Super Bowl campaign last year, Manning’s worst games resulted in Bronco’s losses, including the championship game.

same goes for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who the Packers host in two weeks. Brady was awful in the Patriots’ two losses this year (54.4 completion percentage, 66.9 rating, 2 TD, 2 INT) and he’s been brilliant in the eight wins (66.7 percent, 111.7 rating, 22 TD, 3 INT).

This really should be no surprise. It’s a quarterback’s league, and has been made more so year by year with rule changes, but it’s interesting just how much that one individual’s play means in wins and losses.

Unlike baseball and basketball where the results of individual matchups often decide the "team" game, football remains a collective effort. An individual may be immensely talented, but unless 10 other men are largely effective on that particular play, he may not be impactful.

Since the Super Bowl year, the Packers are 1-3 in the playoffs.

In the losses, Rodgers has posted ratings of 78.5, 91.5 and 97.8. Now, the latter two numbers are really good for most – but when you have a career rating of 106.4 and have posted ratings of 122.5, 108.0, 104.9 and 120.1 the last for years, that is a dip in production.

Rodgers also has thrown for five touchdowns against two interceptions.

For all of the hours spent on talk shows and words written about all the other issues that surround this team, the one thing that seems to be most indicative of whether the Packers win or lose is how well – or how poorly – Rodgers plays.

Perhaps it is that simple.