At the start of winter we heard that the lack of a La Nina could spell a drier season than last year and the result was the second snowiest December on record. Now, there's talk that a La Nina has formed out in the Pacific and that it could change our weather.
So, I called Dale Mohler, a meteorologist at AccuWeather in State College, Penn., to get his take on where this winter is going.
"There's no way you can get specifics," Mohler says, but notes that it is possible to get a good idea.
"We look at how the water temps are running in the Pacific, for example. And patterns in the Atlantic can affect things. We look at how certain months have gone compared to previous years.
"Things really have improved in long-range forecasts in the last five or 10 years. Now I think there's pretty good track records with 30- and even 90-day outlooks. Beyond 90 days I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in it."
So, what about La Nina?
"It is true that we're going into, or that we are in, a weak La Nina," Mohler says, "but it may have very little or no impact on the weather in the U.S. I think very little impact. There are other things that are going to impact 95% of the weather in the central part of the winter."
The main one, he says, is that pesky jet stream that locked us into a repetitive pummeling last month. In fact, Mohler says, we were victims of two jets, one bringing cold air down from western Canada and one bringing moisture up from the southwest. When they met over our heads, the snow came down.
"The jet stream is almost always a factor at this latitude," says Mohler. "Now that pattern has broken a little bit. So, the storms are more to the south and east and missing you guys."
So, you want to know what January, February and March will look like?
"In the shorter term we're going into a very cold pattern for about 10 days starting tomorrow with daytime highs in the single digits and teens over the weekend and in the middle of next week. The middle of next week is when it bottoms out," says Mohler.
"Looks like the second half (of January) will be not as cold; near or above normal. As far as snow, we're going into a pattern now where the only moisture you'll see will come down from the clippers; you can get two or three inches of snow from those. We're talking about the possibility of a mild February where the temperatures might run five or six degrees above normal."
But moisture prediction, says Mohler, is a little riskier business.
"With the moisture pattern I think there's a chance you could get normal precipitation in February. But with warmer temperatures it could be more ice and rain. I think you'll have a higher than usual number of days of precipitation. My gut feeling is that it will be close to normal precipitation but it's possible that it won't be all snow.
"In March it looks like that mild weather could continue, but there is some thought here that later in the month and into April it could get a little colder than normal. Precipitation is probably near or below in March. And April may start off chilly and then moderate.
"Last year May was cool but with think this opposite this year, we think after that it will get warm quickly and that May will be a warm month."
Born in Brooklyn, N.Y., where he lived until he was 17, Bobby received his BA-Mass Communications from UWM in 1989 and has lived in Walker's Point, Bay View, Enderis Park, South Milwaukee and on the East Side.
He has published three non-fiction books in Italy – including one about an event in Milwaukee history, which was published in the U.S. in autumn 2010. Four more books, all about Milwaukee, have been published by The History Press.
With his most recent band, The Yell Leaders, Bobby released four LPs and had a songs featured in episodes of TV's "Party of Five" and "Dawson's Creek," and films in Japan, South America and the U.S. The Yell Leaders were named the best unsigned band in their region by VH-1 as part of its Rock Across America 1998 Tour. Most recently, the band contributed tracks to a UK vinyl/CD tribute to the Redskins and collaborated on a track with Italian novelist Enrico Remmert.
He's produced three installments of the "OMCD" series of local music compilations for OnMilwaukee.com and in 2007 produced a CD of Italian music and poetry.
In 2005, he was awarded the City of Asti's (Italy) Journalism Prize for his work focusing on that area. He has also won awards from the Milwaukee Press Club.
He has be heard on 88Nine Radio Milwaukee talking about his "Urban Spelunking" series of stories, in that station's most popular podcast.
