{image1} The ball has now dropped-a bit sooner than expected but not after Ulice Payne's grandstanding broke off Doug Melvin's negotiating arm. All things considered, the collective Brewers organization is doing a good job of regrouping. The sting of the Payne fallout is still there but steps are being taken to move on.
Step one was completing the Richie Sexson trade. All Brewers fans are sad to see him go-not only because he is another in long line of Brewers stars that we had the opportunity to watch develop and leave, but because Sexson is the kind of guy an organization can build off of. Not only his play on the field, but his personality off of it.
This still was a necessary evil. This trade was part of the plan. The plan was sabotaged for a bit but Melvin put it back on track. What the Brewers received for their superstar first baseman does not bowl you over, but there is value, depth and potential.
The Principles
The six newest Brewers are Chad Moeller, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, Jorge De La Rosa and Chris Capuano.
The Brewers are desperate for a catcher, so Moeller will be a decent fit. Counsell is a nice homecoming story, but his value will be best used in stabilizing the shortstop position and mentoring young J.J. Hardy.
Overbay spent the last two years on the Diamondbacks top-10 prospect list. The problem is that he plays first base-not exactly a position of need for the Brewers. He is the classic Doug Melvin player (much like Wes Helms) in that he has not yet had the chance to prove his talent over a full season.
Spivey is another intriguing player. An all-star in 2002, Spivey has the talent that led Curt Schilling to express his surprise that Arizona traded him away. Like Overbay, his position is claimed. Spivey is a second baseman, which in due time belongs to Rickie Weeks. The rumor is that Spivey won't ever wear a Brewer uniform.
The two reasons that this trade was made, however, were Capuano and De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a 22 year old left-handed pitcher that is consistently clocked in the mid-90s. He was considered the top Red Sox pitching prospect and his development will determine whether or not this trade will be valuable or just another in the long line of false promises.
Capuano falls into another one of Melvin's categories-a potential comeback player of the year. Capuano was once a highly regarded left-handed pitching prospect. Now at 26, he is going into his second year of recovery after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Capuano could be a steal if he bounces back to full strength.
All of these players add to what the Brewers have been building since the glorious day Sal Bando was finally shown the door five years ago. Baseball America consistently ranked the Brewers farm system as a whole the worst in MLB. Going into the 2004 season the Brewers are ranked 16th and considered a team on the rise. Potential can be a dirty word but it is better than laughing stock.
Only a select few have a chance at contributing on the major league level within the next year. The Brewers definitely have some talent in the system and some positions of strength, but still desperately need to fill other holes. The plan is in motion and will be accelerated by trades such as the Sexson deal. The Twins did not make a breakthrough until they dealt their star Chuck Knobloch. Let all Brewers fans pray that this trade even resembles that deal.
Now that Melvin has made the difficult decisions, it is possible and useful to assess organization strengths and weaknesses to begin maneuvering players around. This plan will most likely be unfurled in full beginning with the beginning of the 2005 season. That day can't come soon enough.
Catchers:
This is the biggest weakness of the organization. There is only one legitimate catching prospect throughout all of the minor leagues. The good thing is that Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel baseball writer Tom Haudricourt has compared this guy to Mike Piazza. Lou Palmisano, a third round draft choice from Broward (Fla.) Junior College, is the jewel of Melvin's 2003 draft.
The 21-year-old Palmisano won the MVP of the Pioneer Rookie League despite missing the final few weeks. With the dearth of catching prospects in the organization, he should be able to move quickly up the ladder. He will most likely begin the season in A Beloit and 2006 may be the earliest we could see Palmisano with the big club.
Other catchers in the organization have been disappointments. Kade Johnson, a second round pick in 1999, has struggled at every level since his big season in rookie ball. He spent last year at Huntsville even though his numbers weren't deserving of promotion. Jason Belcher is now an outfield prospect. Belcher has the potential to be a great hitter, but isn't as attractive as an outfielder as he once was as a catcher.
Infielders:
Without question, this is the strength of the organization and the only reason Junior Spivey may be just passing by. The studs of the infield crop are Hardy and second baseman Rickie Weeks. They could be the Brewers double play combination within the year and for many years to come.
To mention their accomplishments could take the rest of this column. Let it be said, when these two are ready, the positions are theirs'. Hardy will be given every chance to win the opening day job at shortstop, while Weeks will most likely start at Huntsville but not stay very long.
Other middle infielders that deserve mention are Alejandro Machado and the young Gilberto Acosta. Machado came to the Brewers in the Curtis Leskanic deal and will most like likely start with AAA Indianapolis. Acosta tore up the rookie league and will make his debut next year with Beloit.
The Crew is also loaded at the corner infield positions. Prince Fielder is the Brewers' most heralded prospect. He absolutely dominated the Northern Leagues last year and walked away with MVP honors. He is an amazing all-around hitter and his defense will be adequate if he continues to improve. The Brewers are trying to be patient with Fielder, who is only 19-years-old. His production makes patience very difficult.
At the moment, Overbay only looks like a stopgap. He struggled in part-time duty last year with the D-Backs, but will be given every opportunity to show the hitting prowess that scouts have been talking about.
Cory Hart and Brad Nelson are former first baseman that have made the move to other positions to clear the path for Fielder. Hart has moved to third base where, despite his early defensive struggles, he went on to win the Southern League MVP award. Most scouts don't think he will be able to play third but Hart made dramatic defensive strides in the second half of last year. He has power to all fields and his stature resembles the recently departed Sexson. Hart will begin the season with Indianapolis and will be most likely be a candidate to take over one of the vacant outfield positions in the coming years.
Whether or not Hart makes the move to the outfield depends on whether Wes Helms builds upon his solid 2003 campaign. Helms has the ability to be a solid third baseman with 30 HR power. It all comes down to Helms not trying to pull everything. Helms has one of the best arms ever seen at third base and holds the key to not only his future, but also Hart's.
Outfielders:
This is another weakness in the organization. But if there is a place where a weakness can be overcome, it most likely is the outfield. The Brewers don't have that many outfield prospects in the system and the ones they do have all come from the same mold. They are all athletic contact hitting defensive centerfielders. The Brewers desperately lack power in the outfield, but like previously stated, help can come form other areas.
The Brewers top outfield prospects are Dave Krynzel and Tony Gwynn, Jr. Both play centerfield and have the same style. Krynzel was the very first pick of the rebuilding process and has shown signs that he could become a star at the big league level-but has not developed the bunting and patience at the plate to be a lead-off hitter. This will be a watershed year for Krynzel who is still the future in centerfield even with Scott Podsednik already on the roster. Krynzel will most likely start in Indianapolis.
Tony Gwynn, Jr. is already one of the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball. His ability to track in the gaps is reminiscent of Andruw Jones. Gwynn is a gap hitter that could develop some more power along the way. Gwynn's problem is that he is one of many centerfielders in the organization, although the Mariners have proved the value of playing three outstanding defensive outfielders. Gwynn may be lone star at High Desert this year unless the organization wants to keep the second wave of talent together at Huntsville.
It appears that Geoff Jenkins will remain a Brewer for this year. If only he could put together a 150-game season. He and Podsednik will have to carry the offense and defense in 2004. It will be interesting to see how these two players fit into the long-term plans.
The cavalry of help will come from players that may be switching positions. Hart may be the left fielder of the future. The right fielder of the future may be former first baseman and minor league player of the year Brad Nelson.
Nelson has been somewhat forgotten since he spent most of last year on the DL with a broken hamate bone in his wrist. He only played a few games at Huntsville last year so the Brewers sent him to the Arizona Fall league. Nelson hit well but the injury has sapped him of his power. This injury may be a two-year injury, not unlike an ACL or Tommy John surgery. A healthy Nelson brings athletic ability and a cannon arm to the outfield.
Other possibilities, although far fetched, are Spivey and Overbay. Neither has played the outfield before, but may get their chance in the upcoming year.
Other players deserving of mention are Belcher, Steve Moss and the speedy Charlie Fermaint. Both Moss and Fermaint are in the mold of Krynzel and Gwynn, and have the potential to become players. Fermaint, at the age of 17, tore up the Arizona Rookie League last year before getting hurt.
Pitching:
When the Brewers began their rebuilding process their top prospects were the likes of Steve Woodard and Kyle Peterson. Now, comparatively speaking, the Brewers have an embarrassment of riches-although no team can ever have too many live arms.
Topping the list is Ben Sheets. Amazingly, Sheets is still only 25-years-old and already has a career's worth of pitching on bad teams without any run support. Some scouts have been critical of Sheets' lack of development, but you can't blame a guy that knows he has to throw a shutout to win. Sheets made huge strides with his changeup last year and is expected to be the ace of a very young staff in the upcoming years.
The list of other top prospects begins with Manny Parra-the poster boy for the draft and follow process. Drafted in the 26th round of the 2001 draft, the Brewers signed him to a multi-million dollar contract the following year after Parra added to his fastball-a testament to the Brewers' willingness to spend money if it follows the rebuilding plan.
The sky is the limit for Parra. He is consistently in the mid-90s and commands both sides of the plate. He also has a nice curveball and changeup along with a splitter that has be shelved in order for him the learn how to use his fastball. Parra could be an ace but is only 21. He is also one of the few Brewer pitchers without arm trouble.
Next on the list is Mike Jones. The first pick in 2001 has shown he was worth the choice. Jones is hard throwing and very athletic. He had a solid year at Huntsville last year despite being only 20-years-old. The Brewers are waiting on pins and needles hoping that his arm trouble isn't something serious. He, along with Parra, is at least a year away.
A couple of other pitchers who have bright futures are Ben Hendrickson, Luis Martinez and Pedro Liriano. All three may log innings with the big club this year. They were part of the Huntsville staff that went to the Southern League World Series last year.
Hendrickson had a shortened season but showed his stuff in the fall league-where he was named a top-10 prospect by Baseball America. He is said to have one of the best curveballs in the game but that has led to arm troubles.
Martinez was easily the minor league pitcher of the year for the Brewers last year. Martinez dominated everywhere he pitched, stringing together multiple scoreless innings streaks. He got his feet wet in the bigs and looked like he wasn't ready. He definitely will get a shot at a spot in the rotation and hopefully won't break his major league record for taking his hat off and on the most times in a three-inning outing.
There are a couple of wild cards in the organization that have been somewhat forgotten while they battle injuries. The return of any of these pitchers could really bolster the collective staff. Nick Neugebauer, Ben Diggins and the enigmatic J.M. Gold have spent the past year in the shadows of the injured list. Gold has never really shown any of his potential because he has always been hurt.
Both Diggins and Neugebauer have shown how overpowering they can be. They are recovering from major arm surgeries and have been mentioned as possible future closers. That may be a good fit for Diggins but Neugebauer's stuff is just too good to only pitch an inning. All three guys will most likely spend an entire year in the minors to make sure they get enough innings to fully recover.
Some other names that deserve mentioning are Tom Wilhelmsen, Dennis Sarfate, Jeff Housman, Greg Bruso, Chad Petty, Khalid Ballouli, Carlos Ramirez and Tommy Hawk. It is very nice to see that list of potential pitchers get longer and longer every year. This all without mentioning the likes of Wayne Franklin, Matt Kinney, Matt Ford, Wes Obermueller, Dan Kolb and the recently acquired De La Rosa and Capuano.
Melvin's plan is in place and it is farther along that most think. This whole process was started by Dean Taylor, whose players are starting to come to the surface. All of this development has come under the watch of Jack Zduriencik, the head of scouting. He is the only holdover from the Taylor regime.
Patience is still the watchword here. This team will not win this year and may not win next year either. The Brewers have had a well-documented history of rushing players and burning them out. That shouldn't be the case here. The organization hasn't had this much talent since the Harry Dalton era. Melvin and company need to continue and build then develop that talent. To steal a line from an earlier column: There is a light at the end of the Brewers' tunnel-the organization and the fans just need to stay on track.
