{image1} For every Lew Alcindor there are four Kent Bensons. For every Sidney Moncreif, there are 10 Todd Days.

Now more than ever, the Bucks and General Manager Larry Harris needs to hit a home run with the pick that they were so lucky to get.

Harris traveled to Secaucus, NJ last Tuesday with a slim 6.3% chance to land the first pick and a few trinkets in his pocket to assist the basketball gods in revitalizing a moribund franchise.

This is the third time that the Bucks will make the first selection of the draft. Those three picks produced a Hall of Famer, a solid player and a bust.

In the 1968 the Bucks won a coin flip with the Phoenix Suns and selected Lew Alcindor. Alcindor led the Bucks to their only championship and became one of the best players in NBA history.

In 1977 the Bucks chose Indiana center Kent Benson. Benson was best known for getting punched by Jabbar and being traded for Bob Lanier, who became the centerpiece of the fabulous Bucks teams of the early '80s.

In 1994 the Bucks selected Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson out of Purdue. While he never blossomed into the next Larry Bird as some predicted, he is the Bucks' second all-time leading scorer and was a fixture along with Ray Allen and Sam Cassell on the 2000 team that reached the Eastern Conference finals.

High Expectations

TNT analyst Charles Barkley has been outspoken that most people exaggerate the importance of the first overall pick. He has stated that most years you get a solid - not a franchise - player. Players like Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan and Lebron James only come along once every few years.

With that said, this pick is vital to the Bucks organization. They spent an entire season stuck in the mud and didn't look like they were going anywhere soon. Their first round pick in 2002 was Marcus Haislip - an unmitigated flop. In 2003, they selected T.J. Ford who is an exciting player but may never play again. In 2004, they didn't even have a first round pick although they managed to acquire Zaza Pachulia from Orlando for a second round pick.

The majority of their free agent money will most likely be spent on resigning Michael Redd. Thus winning the lottery is a gift from the Gods. The bounce of a ping pong ball has injected life into an organization that was flat lining.

There are only three true possibilities for the first pick barring trading the first pick which seems highly unlikely unless someone wants to give away the house. The three choices are Marvin Williams, Andrew Bogut and Chris Paul.

Each candidate has their positives and negatives. As of this weekend the general public seems torn on the decision. Breaking down the pluses and minuses should give some insight on which direction the Bucks and general manager Larry Harris should turn.

Name: Marvin Williams
Position: Forward
School: North Carolina
Height: 6'9"
Weight: 230
Age: 18

The Skinny: Williams declared for the draft after playing one season at North Carolina under Roy Williams.

Positives: He is widely considered the most talented player in the draft. He is a freak athlete that already has an NBA body at the age of 18, to go along with physical skills, mental makeup and work ethic that many scouts and coaches have raved about.

He has the ability to play both inside and outside and has the potential to be a superstar in the league in a few years. Rick Majerus has been quoted as saying that Williams is James Worthy with a jump shot. There is no question that Williams has the highest ceiling in the draft and may be too much for the Bucks to pass up.

Negatives: It is hard to imagine that even though the Tar Heels were stacked last year that Williams didn't play more of a role in their championship run. In fact, he seemed to disappear.

Williams is also very raw and will need time to develop. He is much more of a risk that Andrew Bogut or Chris Paul.

Summary: GM Larry Harris will really have to stick to his guns to make this pick. Williams is the most talented player in the draft, but currently he is not the best player in the draft. Williams's superstar potential should be enough to convince Harris to pass on the big Aussie.

Name: Andrew Bogut
Position: Center
School: Utah
Height: 7"0"
Weight: 245
Age: 20

The Skinny: Bogut declared for the draft after his sophomore season at Utah after single-handedly carrying his team to the Sweet 16.

Positives: Much is made about Marvin Williams' ripe age of 18, but Bogut is only 20 and has vast experience playing internationally for his home country of Australia. Most people incorrectly think he is not athletic. He is a fantastic passer in the mold of Vlade Divac and has a solid mid-range jumper. He is also as good or if not better going to his left than his right. His 20 point and 12 rebound average at Utah is nothing to sneeze at.

Bogut is also ready to come in and contribute right away. During the Olympics, Bogut was matched up against Tim Duncan and more than held his own scoring 22 points and grabbing 18 rebounds.

Negatives: Bogut is neither the biggest nor the strongest guy in the world. He will get muscled around by many big men. Most likely he will not be able to dominate games in the NBA like you would like to have your first pick overall to have the potential to do.

Summary: Despite fitting one of the Bucks main needs being a highly skilled big man his potential does not reach superstar levels. He is a very safe pick and would fit in nicely with the Bucks, but he also not going to carry the team to a Championship.

Name: Chris Paul
Position: Point Guard
School: Wake Forest
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 195
Age: 20

The Skinny: Paul declared for the draft after his sophomore season at Wake Forest. He was first team all-American along with Bogut.

Positives: Paul may be the best point guard prospect since Jason Kidd. He is a born leader and has the ability to get to the rim at any time. He also has a fantastic jump shot which keeps the defense honest. His ability to push the ball up the floor is second to none.

He also has the ability to lock down opposing point guards, which is uncommon today among offensive point guards.

Negatives: Paul is not a very big player and that will turn off a lot of NBA GMs. There are not many players in the league that are the focal point of their teams at his size. Only Allen Iverson has stood up to that task over the test of time.

Summary: Paul may be the most dynamic player in the draft. The way he plays reminds some of Baron Davis. While Paul is a great player he doesn't really fit the needs of the Bucks. If the Bucks do select Paul they will most likely move down to do so. That will also signify that the Bucks do not believe that T.J. Ford will be able to play again. The selection of Paul will be unlikely.

Decision Time

The Bucks can not go wrong with the selection of either Bogut or Williams. The decision will be based on whether the Bucks to decide to play it safer with a solid player in Bogut or go for the home run in a player in Williams. The real question is whether Bogut is likely to take the Bucks deep into the playoffs next year. If the answer is no, then Williams is your guy, because in four years he may be able to carry you to the Finals.

The conundrum in all of this is that if Harris passes on Williams and selects Bogut, then Williams becomes a superstar, people will cringe at the mistake. But if he passes on Bogut and selects Williams, then Bogut becomes an all-star, he may need a police escort out of town.

It is up to Harris to make the right decision. The combination of Redd and Bogut will not lead the team to the promised land. Potential is a dirty word, but Williams will be the right choice based specifically on that premise.