There are a few statements in life that we can't always believe, including "The checks in the mail," "No, those clothes don't make you look fat," and "These snowfall measurements are accurate."

You may be familiar with the first two, and trust me, I'm very familiar with the last one. Our end-of-January snowstorm got me thinking about the vagaries of measuring snowfall. It's not a simple task, and the results often give a confused picture of a storm.

The measurement of snowfall is simple on paper. You go out and measure the depth of the newly fallen snow using a ruler. Sample about 10 locations around the yard, being sure to stay away from trees or buildings or any object that may cause drifting snow. The problem with this system is that on a windy day, snow drifts everywhere and the measuring task becomes futile.

Another way to measure snowfall is use the amount of water melted in a rain gauge and multiply by 10. A typical snowstorm will have a snow to water ratio of 10 to 1. Dry fluffy snow that falls under cold conditions may have a ratio of 20 to 1, while wet, heavy snow that falls under warmer conditions may have a ratio of 5 to 1. So estimating becomes a lot of guesswork. And that doesn't account for the snowflakes that won't collect in the rain gauge on a windy day.

Here is the ideal snow-measuring set-up. Have a flat area away from buildings and trees that you can go to frequently during a snow storm to measure depth with a ruler. If the snow is really coming down, go out every hour, measure the new snow, clear the flat surface and wait another hour. This prevents the snow from settling and compressing too much before you measure it. Heavy, wet snows settle quickly and light, fluffy snows blow around a lot. I think you get the picture that it's not an exact science.

There is no automated snow-measuring device at this time, but there is a prototype being tested now. It uses an infrared beam to measure snow depth on a continuous basis, hopefully eliminated the settling and blowing/drifting problems.

So what about the snowfall on Jan. 30-31, 2002? From 6 p.m. on Jan. 30 to 6 a.m. on Jan. 31, 6.8 inches fell at Mitchell International Airport, the official reporting and recording location for Milwaukee weather statistics. But within 3 or 4 miles of the airport were amounts of 5.5 inches and 3 inches. Other locations in southeast Wisconsin recorded similar variations. The storm featured a heavy, wet snow with a strong wind, introducing both settling and drifting into the snowfall amounts.

We need to realize that snowfall measurements give us a general idea of the storm's strength, with a built-in error of 10 to 20 percent in most cases. Some outdoor conditions may yield a 30 percent error in measurement. Maybe I should learn to keep my forecasts generic and broad-based, such as a snow forecast of 3 to 6 inches or 5 to 10 inches, instead of attempting to pinpoint an exact amount for certain locations.

With that in mind, here's my forecast for tomorrow: Sunny to Mostly Cloudy, highs from 15 to 55, winds of variable speeds and from various directions. Hey, now there's some guaranteed accuracy!

Watch Vince Condella on Fox 6 Sunday through Thursday at 5, 6, 9 and 10 p.m. You can see the FOX 6 weather forecast around the clock at www.fox6milwaukee.com