As millions of TV viewers were bidding farewell to the Winter Olympics Sunday night, ESPN.com baseball writer Jayson Stark sent out a tweet with an encouraging thought:
"Here's a thought that ought to warm you up out there. This was the last Sunday without a baseball game to watch until Nov. 7. Play ball!"
Play ball, indeed.
As the Brewers and other teams get set to begin exhibition games, fantasy baseball owners are preparing for their drafts. We're here to help. In this installment, we'll look at starting pitchers and outfielders.
Included will be top 20 rankings at each position (Rotisserie mixed leagues = AL + NL), players who are rising and falling, and a few deep sleepers. To top things off, we'll throw in a few extra tidbits you should know as you continue to research these prime positions.
TOP 20 STARTING PITCHERS
1. Tim Lincecum -- San Francisco Giants: Although I worry about his durability due to his style of pitching, it's hard to argue against his almost 1.2 strikeouts per inning in his last 67 games over the last two seasons. Pair that with an ERA that has been below 2.65 and an average start of 6.8 innings per game rate and you have yourself the top ranked starting pitcher in any kind of format.
2. CC Sabathia -- NY Yankees
3. Zack Greinke -- Kansas City Royals
4. Roy Halladay -- Philadelphia Phillies
5. Adam Wainwright -- St Louis Cardinals
6. Justin Verlander -- Detroit Tigers
7. Felix Hernandez -- Seattle Mariners
8. Johan Santana -- NY Mets
9. Clayton Kershaw -- Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Dan Haren -- Arizona Diamondbacks
11. Jon Lester -- Boston Red Sox
12. Josh Johnson -- Florida Marlins
13. Chris Carpenter -- St Louis Cardinals
14. Josh Beckett -- Boston Red Sox
15. Tommy Hanson -- Atlanta Braves
16. Yovani Gallardo -- Milwaukee Brewers
17. Javier Vazquez -- NY Yankees
18. Cliff Lee -- Seattle Mariners
19. Matt Cain -- San Francisco Giants
20. Cole Hamels -- Philadelphia Phillies
TOP 20 OUTFIELDERS
1. Ryan Braun -- Milwaukee Brewers: Most outside of Milwaukee label him as cocky, or whatever choice words they can conjure. I call him confident, and when you're a confident hitter you're bound to swing a good bat. In the last three seasons, Braun has averaged 34 homers, 105 runs batted in, 16 stolen bases, and 174 hits. He also has a lifetime batting average of .308, a slugging percentage of .574, and has crushed 39 doubles in each of the past two seasons. Not only is he the best all-round hitting outfielder, you can rank him behind just Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera when listing the game's best pure hitters.
2. Carl Crawford -- Tampa Bay Rays
3. Justin Upton -- Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Jacoby Ellsbury -- Boston Red Sox
5. Ichiro Suzuki -- Seattle Mariners
6. Matt Kemp -- Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Adam Lind -- Toronto Blue Jays
8. Josh Hamilton -- Texas Rangers
9. Nick Markakis -- Baltimore Orioles
10. Matt Holliday -- St Louis Cardinals
11. Carlos Beltran -- NY Mets
12. Carlos Lee -- Houston Astros
13. Manny Ramirez -- Los Angeles Dodgers
14. Jason Bay -- NY Mets
15. Ben Zobrist -- Tampa Bay Rays
16. Jayson Werth -- Philadelphia Phillies
17. BJ Upton -- Tampa Bay Rays
18. Bobby Abreu -- Los Angeles Angels
19. Alfonso Soriano -- Chicago Cubs
20. Andre Ethier -- Los Angeles Dodgers
RISING, FALLING, AND DEEP SLEEPERS
RISING
Los Angeles LHP Clayton Kershaw -- The Dodgers' flame-throwing 22-year old is a fantasy owner's dream, especially when it comes to strikeouts. Last season Kershaw, struck out 185 batters in just 171 innings. He also maintained an earned run average of 2.79. The bottom line here is that if the Dodgers hitters can give Kershaw better run support, and the youngster develops better consistency while staying healthy throughout the entire 2010 season, he will be a 15-game winner to go along with his 250-strikeout potential. In mixed leagues, Kershaw is being taken off the board anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds.
Starters behind Kershaw include ...
Atlanta RHP Tommy Hanson -- Equipped with a wicked curveball, and standing tall at 6-6 the Braves' 23-year-old future ace has quickly made his way up the starting pitcher ranks. After June last season, he posted a 11-4 record and averaged roughly six innings per game and eight strikeouts per nine innings. You'll have to grab him before the eighth round, though, as he's becoming a hot commodity in fantasy.
Washington RHP Stephen Strasburg -- Normally, I'm a little hesitant about taking starting pitchers who haven't made a Major League start yet, but Strasburg is the real deal. His fastball can reach triple digits, and his slider is downright nasty. Yes, he plays for the Nationals, but he's a great pick for those looking for huge strikeout totals from a third or fourth rotation option in the middle rounds of mixed league drafts.
Colorado OF Carlos Gonzalez -- The Rockies leftfielder seems to be a star on the rise, and playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field will only help propel him. In 89 games and 278 at-bats, Gonzalez hit a cool .284, muscled 13 homers, drove in 29 runs and even stole 16 bases. As of now, he's projected to hit sixth in a Colorado lineup that features solid hitters in Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitski and Brad Hawpe swinging the lumber in front of him. Gonzalez can probably be had as a high-upside second or comfortable third outfielder between rounds 11 and 13 in mixed league drafts, and a few rounds earlier in NL-only leagues.
Not far behind Gonzalez are ...
Pittsburgh's Garrett Jones -- Jones can both play the outfield and first base and is a pure power hitter (21 homers, 82 RBI in ‘09). Double that up and you have a 40-homer hitter for cheap price in the middle rounds.
Minnesota's Denard Span -- Last season, Span stole 23 bases and hit .311. This season, he should hit around the same and punch between six and 12 home runs. More important, he could also double his steals total if free-swinging former Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy hits behind him, as some are projecting. Hardy has had a history of hitting into double plays, so you can bet when Span gets on base, especially early in games, he will swiping a few bases.
Baltimore's Adam Jones -- Although he didn't live up to the large expectations last season, the 24-year-old Orioles outfielder did put together a pretty good stat line, and fell just one homer short of 20 in an injury-shortened (ankle sprain) season. He still has big Justin Upton-like potential, but at the same time will carry a heftier price tag than the three listed above.
Atlanta RHP Derek Lowe -- After starting strong, Lowe fell apart in his last 20 or so starts last season, and he has been quickly unseated from his former spot in the rotation. Currently, the best spot for the overpaid pre-2009 signing seems to be fourth or fifth behind Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson. At this point, he may be a free agent at best in mixed leagues.
San Diego RHP Chris Young -- The once dominant Padres pitcher not only has had a hard time staying on the field, but has seen a severe increase in earned run average while cutting down his strikeout totals in the past two seasons. The worst part is that he pitches in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Young would be a mere waste of a draft pick, even in NL only leagues.
Arizona OF Chris Young -- Young was once the very poor man's version of Adam Dunn, but he has quickly descended into the fantasy gutter. His average last season was an abysmal .212, and his home run totals have gone from 32 in 2007 to 37 combined in ‘08 and ‘09. Unless you're in an extremely deep NL only league, or you heard from above that he's going to bust out this season, don't even think about drafting this Young.
DEEP SLEEPERS
Toronto SP Mark Rzepczynski -- The southpaw pitcher will battle hard for a spot in the Toronto Blue Jays rotation this spring, and could come out as the fourth or fifth option once the season begins. His 3.67 ERA, 60 strikeouts in 61.1 innings pitched are encouraging numbers for a 24-year-old who has only started in 11 big league games. Rzepczynski generally works down in strike zone, which explains his pleasing 1.64 groundball-to-flyball ratio. He can probably be had as a free agent in most mixed leagues, and holds value at the latter half of AL only drafts.
Cleveland OF Matt LaPorta -- The Indians youngster has yet to come alive for the Tribe since his arrival via the CC Sabathia trade with the Brewers during the 2008 season. However, with the door now wide open for him to perform at a high level right in the heart of the Cleveland lineup this season LaPorta should produce good power numbers. He has Adam Lind potential and is a must have deep sleeper, especially for those in AL only drafts.
DON'T OVERLOOK
St. Louis OF Ryan Ludwick -- Sure, Ludwick had a down year in 2009, but he still has amazing power, along with the amazing Pujols and recently re-signed Matt Holliday in front of him. Ludwick could be one of the biggest sleepers in mixed leagues, considering he's not being taken until at least round 15 in early mock drafts. And with two great hitters in front of him, pitchers may be forced to give him good pitches in certain situations.
Oakland RHP Ben Sheets -- As Brewers fans already know, Sheets has had a hard time staying healthy throughout his storied career, but when he is healthy he is one of the best in the game. Heading into this season, Sheets is bound to take the hill as the top option in the A's rotation, and is no longer a disgruntled flame thrower. He still has a nasty curveball coupled with a heated fastball, so fantasy owners who do take a chance on him may reap the rewards of high strikeout totals. In most mixed leagues, and even AL only drafts he's going undrafted, but I suggest selecting him at the back half of your draft to fill the final spot in your fantasy rotation.
GETTING TRENDY
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells is coming off a powerless 2009 campaign. Wells hit just 15 home runs (one every 42 at bats), his lowest total since the 2002 season when he became a full-time starter in the outfield. His second-lowest total came in 2007, when he hit 16 (one every 36.6 at bats). In 2008, Wells only played in 108 games, but averaged a homer every 21.25 at bats for a total of 20. The icing though, is that ‘07 and ‘09 were also seasons where he posted his lowest batting averages of his career at .245 and .260. In 2008, he posted a .300 average. It makes you think that he's bound for another rebound year this season.
Brewers Watch
The outfield is obviously led by Braun. Next to him in centerfield is former Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez who was acquired for shortstop J.J. Hardy. Gomez has blazing speed, but lacks the good bat needed to hit at the top of the lineup. When in the lineup, he will most likely be used in the number nine spot that can only be described as an attempt to put him in front of the top of lineup in certain situations. When Gomez isn't in the lineup, either veteran Jim Edmonds or Jody Gerut will most likely be roaming centerfield.
In right field will be Corey Hart, who is coming off a terrible 2009 campaign and is in the doghouse with most Brewers fans. His biggest issue, though, last season was manager Ken Macha's inability to keep him in one spot in the starting lineup, Hart is at his best when he's an aggressive swinger, which I suspect he'll get back to this season once he finds a permanent spot in the starting lineup. Other than Braun, he's the only player in this outfield cast whom fantasy owners should consider as a back-up option, especially in NL-only leagues.
The starting rotation consists of rising star Yovani Gallardo, free agent lefties Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, veteran Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra or Dave Bush.
Gallardo is the ace of the staff from a fantasy perspective, while Wolf seems to hold the keys for the second spot in the rotation. If Macha wants more balance, he will most likely elect to alternate lefty-righty. This would mean that Suppan would probably take the third spot, while Davis moves in to the fourth spot. The final spot will be up for grabs between Parra and Bush. It's very rare to see three left handed pitchers in one rotation, so I would lean toward Bush in this case, especially because he seems to eat up more innings.
Nevertheless, this is all irrelevant when it comes to fantasy, because the only two pitchers most owners in mixed leagues should be looking at are Gallardo and Wolf. End of story.
Final Thought
I recently took a deep look at the starting pitcher spot of an expert mock draft, and found something that every fantasy owner should consider when developing a winning draft strategy before the big day.
In the first six rounds, just 12 starting pitchers were selected (two per round). In the first three rounds, a total of three were selected, including one in the first two rounds. So unless you want Tim Lincecum, don't even bother selecting a starting pitcher until at least the fourth round. This should allow you the opportunity to build a strong core of three or four hitters to go along with a potential top-five pitcher in the rounds following. For example, both Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw, two pitchers who have top-five potential, weren't taken off the board until round six.
My favorite strategy in this particular expert draft came via Team 10. In the first six rounds, this particular expert took Miguel Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, Manny Ramirez, and Victor Martinez. Then, in rounds seven through nine he stacked his rotation with Tommy Hanson, Chris Carpenter, and Cole Hamels.
The strategy was spot-on, and it's something that all fantasy owners should consider as a model of how the first nine picks should be structured.
In a nutshell, as a fantasy owner, you're going to get the most bang for your buck at starting pitcher between rounds five and 10, so if you have the patience to wait for high value you're going to draft a good core of players at the top half of your draft.
