What kind of fantasy presents will you be getting this season? OK, I know how that sounds, but we are talking about football here, and the fantasy playoffs are alive and rolling through Weeks 15 and 16.
The bad news is that now it's do or die time, and you'll need as much good advice as you can get to capture that championship trophy. The good news is that's exactly what you'll get from the writers at RapidDraft.com in this week's edition of the Fantasy Forecast.
The forecast features leaders and leakers, heroes and villains, questions answered, a fantasy breakdown between the Packers and Steelers, some bonus random fantasy thoughts (get out of the gutter already), and a special NFL/Fantasy Football Christmas tune.
Get your robe, slippers and fireplace ready, because you'll be filling your fantasy football mind with information a plenty this week. While you're at it, make sure you sign up for the weekly contest at Rapiddraft.com. It's free.
WEEK 14 FANTASY LEADERS
Titans running back Chris Johnson -- Much to the delight of some opening round fantasy playoff owners, Johnson was back at it again this week as he ran for 117 yards, caught three passes for 69 yards and scored three touchdowns. You could argue that he should be everyone's fantasy MVP through 14 weeks and if the Titans sneak in to the NFL playoffs he could even claim the MVP title. This week, the Titans stay at home to face the Dolphins in a playoff-like matchup as both teams continue their unlikely quest towards the postseason.
Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall -- There are no words that could possibly describe Marshall's Week 14 outburst of 21 receptions, 200 yards and two touchdowns; well, except record-breaking. This week, he leads the Broncos' offense back home to face an Oakland defense against whom he is averaging five receptions and 75 yards in four career games.
Colts tight end Dallas Clark -- The Colts tight end has done it all this season; from recording 150-plus yards in a single game to recording double-digit receptions. Well, you can now add a three-touchdown game to Clark's 2009 resume; a feat that is incredible, especially for a tight end. This week, the Colts are on the road against a Jaguars defense that can be burned through the air, and has allowed 20 passing touchdowns.
WEEK 14 FANTASY LEAKERS
Jaguars quarterback David Garrard -- Last week against Dolphins marked the seventh game this season that Garrard was held without a touchdown pass. It also marked the fourth time Mr. Garrard has recorded less than 200 passing yards. With just ten touchdown passes and one of the most inconsistent offenses Garrard has become fantasy irrelevant.
Buccaneers running back Carnell Williams -- The Bucs' offense never had a chance against the Jets in Week 14, and Williams rushed 11 times for a dismal 14 yards. Then again, any team which has the former Cadillac runner is most likely out of playoff contention, anyway. Nevertheless, if you do have No. 24, it doesn't get any better this week as the Buccaneers travel west to face a Seattle defense that gets gashed regularly through the air and not on the ground.
Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss -- Hit or miss; it's been the story of Moss' fantasy career. Week 14 was a major miss as the big-play threat recorded just one reception for 16 yards ending in a lost fumble, and was named as the low effort player of the game by the Panthers defenders, who insisted he took the game off. This week, he'll get a shot at redemption against a Buffalo Bills he destroyed earlier this season, catching 12 passes for 141 yards.
Bears tight end Greg Olsen -- Once again, the Bears tight end disappeared catching just two Jay Cutler passes for 14 yards to bring his season totals to 51 and 463, right on pace for similar numbers as last season. This week the Bears will be at Baltimore, facing a defense that surrendered just three points to the Detroit Lions and a team in the thick of the playoff hunt in the AFC.
WEEK 15 FANTASY HEROES AND VILLAINS
HEROES
Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner -- Warner and his Arizona teammates were embarrassed on Monday night by a 49ers defense that came ready to play, and No. 13 himself was responsible for three turnovers (two interceptions and one fumble). However, I expect him to shake off the bad performance, as the Cardinals have the lowly Lions defense on the schedule next. It's the same defense that leads the NFL in average passing yards allowed (272.1 yards) and passing touchdowns (29), but this is not the prime reason why Warner will play hero this week. After the only other game where he registered a quarterback rating below 50.0 (November 1 against the Panthers) and threw five interceptions Warner, rebounded to throw five touchdowns on the road against the NFC North Bears the following week. You add that factor to the very bad Lions pass defense, and it doesn't matter who plays wide receiver this week; Warner will get it done.
Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles -- Charles has quickly turned in to the focal point of the Chiefs offense and has crossed the goal line in each of the last five games. This week the Browns are in a town; a team that is susceptible to giving up large chunks of yardage on the ground to go along with an average of one touchdown per game. Add in the struggles that continue to plague Matt Cassel, and it'll ultimately be up to Charles to carry the offense once again this week at home. And, with a wretched Browns offense on the other side that has had problems all year long with scoring points the Chiefs may not even need to air it out at all.
Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin -- In his last three games, not only has Miles Austin scored a touchdown, but he has averaged 7.6 receptions, and 106.6 yards per game. His quarterback Tony Romo has thrown for at least 249 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of the last three games. This week, Austin, Romo, and the Cowboys offense travel to New Orleans on Saturday night to try and knock off the undefeated Saints in a game that could quickly turn in to a shootout. Either way, as long as the Cowboys play from behind once again, Austin will produce hero numbers in Week 15.
VILLAINS
49ers quarterback Alex Smith -- The story of Alex Smith's revival is indeed great news for the 49ers organization and fantasy owners, but this week he has to take his offense cross country (literally) to play in a very hostile environment in Philadelphia, and face a defense that has much to prove after last week's "Giant" debacle. Plus, in the last four December games since the 2007-'08 season, opposing offenses have scored a combined one touchdown in the friendly combines of Lincoln Financial Field. No, it's not a typo. The bottom line here is that the odds are stacked against Smith this week, and in favor of the mean Eagles' December defense.
Bears running back Matt Forte -- Everyone already knows about Forte's continuing disappointing numbers, and his one 100-yard rushing game this season (against Detroit), but do you know how bad he's been against the AFC North this season? In the Bears' other three games against the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and even Cleveland, Forte rushed for a combined 143 yards on 45 carries (3.1 yards per carry). This week, he'll have yet another rough path in front of him when the Bears travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens run defense that is allowing an NFL low 3.5 yards per carry, and ranks in the top 10 in total rushing yards allowed per game. Unless you're in a PPR league Forte should be buried deep on your bench.
Falcons wide receiver Roddy White -- With or without Matt Ryan the Falcons top option is bound to be a huge disappointment on the road and against a Jets defense that has allowed opposing offenses to score just seven times through the air and leads the league in passing yards allowed per game (160.4). To top it off, lining up in front of White this week will be perhaps the best cover cornerback in the NFL, Darrelle Revis. If you have other better options please feel free to stash No. 84 on your bench.
NFL/FANTASY FOOTBALL CHRISTMAS TUNE
(To the tune of "It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year")
It's the most wonderful time of the year
With the NFL season winding down
And Chicago Bears fans wearing a frown
when national TV cameras come near
It's the most wonderful time of the year
It's the hap-happiest season of all
With those trash talking led greetings
and crazy thud-filled meetings
When the on-field battle gets cold
It's the hap-happiest season of all
Chris Johnson will be coasting
Drew Brees will be toasting
And Brady will be fumbling out in the snow
There'll be scary Moss stories
And tales of the glories of
Fantasy playoffs long, long ago.
It's the most wonderful time of the year
There'll be rapid tiptoeing
And Mr. Jacobs will come plowing
When linebackers refuse to revere
It's the most wonderful time of the year
Steve Smith will be skinny posting
Ochocinco will be show-boating
And Charles Woodson will have his way in the snow
There'll be scary Favre stories
And tales of the glories of
Fantasy playoffs long, long ago.
It's the most wonderful time of the year
There'll be much whistle-blowing
And mouths will start rolling
When NFL referees start to spill beers
It's the most wonderful time....... Rodgers to Driver.
It's the most wonderful time....... Peterson diving over the pylon.
It's the most wonderful time....... Marshall, Marshall, Marshall.
It's the most wonderful time.... that defender just lost his jock strap....... of the year.
Here's to football, fantasy playoffs, and all fans, even those Bears followers.
(Note: This rendition will never be as good as the original that debuted in 1963.)
Rapiddraft.com staff writers Eric Huber, Matt Schauf, and Frank Mazzola tackle a few burning questions heading in to Week 15.
Who will steal the air show on Saturday night --- Drew Brees or Tony Romo?
Huber: With the way Romo has been playing of late, it's hard to go against him, but a look at the season numbers tells us that the Cowboys defense have a 6-18 rush-pass touchdowns allowed ratio this season while the Saints currently sit at 15-13. Clearly opposing offenses are better scoring on the ground than through the air against the Saints, while the opposite can be said about the Cowboys. Besides that, Brees is averaging 321 yards and 3 touchdowns per game at home. How can you bet against that?
Schauf: Only one of these teams actually seems willing to stick with the run, and that's New Orleans. The Saints have run the ball at least 23 times in four straight outings despite boasting a deep receiving corps and one of the league's best quarterbacks. The Cowboys, meanwhile, seem to have a mental block against relying on the run despite the fact that their backfield contains a lot more talent than their receiving unit does. So, look for Romo to throw the ball more and thus outdo Drew Brees on that front by a little bit. That said, Brees owners should just have him plugged in every week and not even look at that position when setting their lineups.
Mazzola: I think you have to go with the guy who has been lighting it up all season versus the guy who is notorious for flaming out in Decembers past. Brees is the pick here.
Are both Knowshon Moreno and Peyton Hillis good starts this week against Oakland? Explain.
Huber: Yes, but in different formats. Moreno is the all-around best start in any format, but fantasy owners in touchdown only leagues may want to consider Hillis as a third option. Why? The Oakland Raiders have allowed a league high, 20 touchdowns this season, and if Denver builds a big enough lead Hillis will see the field quite often to keep Moreno fresh for the remaining playoff push.
Schauf: No way. It's far too late in the year to gamble that the team will get Hillis heavily involved. Moreno is a strong fantasy option this week, but he's the only Broncos back you should even look at.
Mazzola: Moreno is the guy to own in the Denver backfield. Moreno is simply the more talented of the two and the one that the Broncos have the most invested in.
Who's the better start in the Tampa Bay-Seattle showdown -- Antonio Bryant or TJ Houshmandzadeh? Why?
Huber: In my opinion, Houshmandzadeh has been a major bust this season for the money Seattle gave him, and even against a weak Bucs defense he still doesn't tickle my fancy. I'm going with Antonio Bryant here. The Seahawks pass defense is horrendous, and Andre Johnson showed us last week what can happen when a big-play receiver gets the ball thrown in his direction against the Seabirds.
Schauf: Houshmandzadeh has reached 50 yards in a game just once since Week 5, and the Seattle pass defense has allowed 10 touchdown passes to opposing wideouts in the past five games. Bryant's upside makes him the stronger play, though both bring starter value into this week because of the favorable matchup.
Mazzola: Bryant had the unfortunate bad luck to be shadowed by possibly the league's best cover man in New York's Darrelle Revis last week. He should be fine to step things back up again against Seattle. Josh Freeman will continue to make mistakes, but he'll be targeting Bryant heavily.
Name your best and bust picks for Week 15:
Huber: QB -- Best: Kurt Warner, Bust: Alex Smith RB -- Best: Knowshon Moreno, Bust: Ryan Grant WR -- Best: Marques Colston, Bust: Roddy White TE -- Best: Antonio Gates, Bust: Greg Olsen
Schauf: QB -- Best: Kurt Warner, Bust: Eli Manning RB -- Best: Adrian Peterson, Bust: Frank Gore WR -- Best: Andre Johnson, Bust: Roddy White TE -- Best: Vernon Davis, Bust: Jeremy Shockey
Mazzola: QB -- Best: Peyton Manning, Bust: Jay Cutler RB -- Best: Ray Rice, Bust: DeAngelo Williams WR -- Best: Reggie Wayne, Bust: Roddy White TE -- Best: Antonio Gates, Bust: Jeremy Shockey
WEEK 14 FANTASY BREAKDOWN
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Quarterback
Green Bay's quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- Rodgers has played in 13 games, and has thrown for 3579 yards, 25 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He also has rushed for 271 yards and three touchdowns, and has thrown seven touchdown passes against AFC North opponents in 2009.
Pittsburgh's quarterback Ben Roethlisberger -- Roethlisberger has played in 12 games, and has thrown for 3346 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He also has rushed for two touchdowns, has thrown multiple touchdowns in a game six times, and has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 10 starts.
Fantasy Advantage -- Rodgers. The offensive line is finally protecting No. 12, and the Steelers run defense is one of the best in the NFL, so the pigskins will be flying at a rapid pace when the Packers offense is on the field.
Running back
Green Bay's Ryan Grant -- Grant has played in 13 games, and has rushed for 1068 yards, has caught 25 passes for 197 yards, and has scored seven times. In his career during the month of December Grant is averaging a career high 87.3 yards per game.
Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall -- Mendenhall has played in 13 games, but wasn't a permanent staple in the starting lineup or offense until Week 4. Since then he's rushed for 895 yards, has caught 16 passes for 145 yards, and has scored six total touchdowns. And in eight of his last ten starts No. 34 has recorded at least 60 rushing yards or more.
Fantasy Advantage: Tie. Both runners have been fairly consistent and are up against good run defenses this week.
Wide receiver
Green Bay's Donald Driver and Greg Jennings -- Driver has played in all 13 games, and has caught 58 balls for 887 yards and has scored six touchdowns. In his only career game against Pittsburgh Driver caught five passes for 64 yards in a 20-10 loss.
Jennings has also played in all 13 games, but has struggled to pull in 56 balls for 855 yards and has scored just three touchdowns. However in his last four games Jennings is averaging 4.5 receptions and 78 yards per.
Pittsburgh's Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes -- Ward erupted early this season, but since has cooled off. He has played in all 13 games, has caught 76 passes for 943 yards, and has scored six times. In his last three, though, No. 86 has averaged 4.3 receptions, and 48.5 yards per game --- 24 less per than his yearly average of 72.5 per.
Holmes has done the exact opposite lately, and has reached the 1,000 yard plateau before the seasoned veteran. In 13 games Holmes has recorded 70 receptions for 1080 yards, but has scored just three touchdowns. However, two of those three have come in the last three games to go along with his almost seven receptions and 106 yards per.
Fantasy Advantage: Driver and Jennings. With Polamalu most likely out this week, and possible defensive player of the year Charles Woodson matched against Holmes and Ward the Packers pair is a much better bet this week.
Tight End
Green Bay's Jermichael Finley -- Finley has played in 10 games and has caught 39 passes for 488 yards and has scored three touchdowns. The Packers have not hidden the fact that they will look to Finley in one-on-one situations especially in the red-zone.
Pittsburgh's Heath Miller -- Miller has played in 13 games, has caught 61 Big Ben throws for 580 yards, and has scored five touchdowns. However, most impressively is his thus far career high 44.6 yards per game. On the flip side, the big tight end has scored just one touchdown in the past seven games after scoring four in the first six.
Fantasy Advantage: Finley. His touches continue to grow each and every week when he is healthy, especially in the red-zone, while Miller's seem to have tapered off as of late.
BONUS: WEEK 15 RANDOM THOUGHTS
And you thought I was done?
Last week, the Tennessee Titans slowed down running back Steven Jackson and kept him below three yards per carry. This week if Jackson does play (back), he'll be up against a Texans defense that is vulnerable to giving up a lot of yardage on the ground and has surrendered 14 touchdowns this season. Tack on 110 yards and a touchdown from his last game against Houston, and you have yourself a must start regardless of how far behind the Rams may find themselves.
For those who think Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is an easy start this week, think again. In his last four games against the likes of Minnesota, St Louis, San Francisco, and Houston he has averaged just 194.5 yards per game and has thrown three touchdown passes. The worst part is that his worst game was against St Louis when he threw for 102 yards and zero touchdowns. It's a Rams defense that is allowing 222.8 passing yards per game and has surrendered 18 touchdowns via air this season.
Giants running back Brandon Jacobs and wide receiver Steve Smith are not automatic starts this week on Monday night against the Redskins. Yes, Washington's record reflects a horrible team, but their defense has allowed just 20 total touchdowns (7 rushing and 13 receiving), and in their last meeting in Week 1 the Giants scored one offensive touchdown.
With Kevin Smith done for the season and the way Frank Gore ran all over the Cardinals defense last week, back-up runner Maurice Morris may be worth considering as a No. 3 option at running back this week. Morris has appeared in 13 career games against Arizona dating back to his days in Seattle.
Start your Patriots runners this week. Not only is it that time of year where Randy Moss takes a break, but New England is up against perhaps the worst run defense in the NFL, bar none.
The last time DeSean Jackson faced the 49ers, he burned their secondary for six receptions and 98 yards. However, last week marked the first time he has seen the end-zone on offense in the month of December.
And finally, the match-up of the week could be out in San Diego, where Chad Ochocinco will face Pro Bowl cornerback Antonio Cromartie in a game that is bound to see plenty of fireworks including the explosive words that come from both mouths.
