{image1} Motivational speakers like to say that "luck" is nothing but preparation colliding with opportunity.

But that's probably because you can't sell 12-step self-help programs on how to be more "lucky" to sleep addled dreamers watching infomercials on cable.

Luck, in short, is well ... luck. Nothing more, nothing less. When it is good, luck is the blessed providence perfect timing and ripe circumstance. When it is bad, it is the gremlin in the spokes of otherwise certain destiny.

Luck is the element of sports, that says "not so fast..." It either excites or infuriates. It either crushes hope or launches dynasties.

So last week, when the Spurs and Lakers authored a classic finish in Game Five, noted bard of the hardwood Shaquille O'Neal mumbled to Michelle Tafoya that "one lucky shot deserves another."

But was he right? Was this indeed a double dose of lady luck, plunked smack down on top of each other? After all, with millions of poker games being played world wide every day, you know that somewhere, someone is holding a straight flush to the king, and he will get beat by a guy who is holding the same hand to the ace.

But was either shot in that final 0.4 actually a "good" shot instead of just a "lucky" one? What about both? Where exactly, does luck end, and skill begin?

For what it is worth, I would have to say Tim Duncan's top-of-the-key launch was certainly the more lucky of the two. After all, Duncan got the inbound on the play and tried to hand off to Manu Ginobli before Kobe cut him off. Stuck, and with the clock running out, Duncan began an awkward reverse diagonal dribble. With Shaq eclipsing the sun in front of him, Duncan somehow managed to telescope his release point just inches above the diesel's extended pumpkin crusher and flipped a shot that banged home squarely off the back iron.

Sorry, but that was luck. An artful heave, but a heave nonetheless.

Fisher's gut-punch just moments later, however, comes closer to skill in my book. A natural lefty, Fisher was drifting toward his shooting hand, not away from it. A careful Ginobli got close enough to smell Fisher's breath, but not enough to block him. A flick of the wrist and a dethroning dagger was about to be plunged into the Spurs' back.

From where I sat, 1,590 miles away on my living room couch, the ball looked eerily good the moment it cleared Ginobli's hands. A second later, it splashed down through the net as clean as a Greg Louganis double-pike.

Verdict: Desperation skill, but skill nonetheless.

This internal debate I was having with myself over luck vs. skill in basketball miracles, got me thinking about other classic shots in both college and pro. Why were some considered lucky and others a bolt of brilliance? What separated the lucky from the good? What was the criteria?

Perhaps the most famous Michael Jordan opus in NBA lore is the shot over Craig Ehlo of the Cavs in 1989 to sink Cleveland at home in a deciding Game Five. Ehlo was recently quoted in a Cleveland paper that he's finally gotten over the pain of that shot. He can now see it replayed (and boy, does it ever get replayed!) and he no longer has to look away.

Ehlo is sadly remembered as the poor bastard seen helplessly falling to earth just a few split seconds before Jordan. Not as a guy who did his job perfectly and still went down in NBA history as a mere stage prop to greatness.

Put succinctly by Ehlo: "Jordan defied the laws of physics on that play and stayed in the air. I however, applied the laws of physics and came down."

But couldn't you make the case that the shot was ultimately lucky, not good? Watching again (and again) over the years, you'll notice that Jordan has to double clutch in mid-air to avoid having his shot blocked. Even though the shot hit pay dirt fairly clean, it doesn't mean that Jordan felt good when it left his hand.

(Stop for a minute: What IF, Ehlo had blocked that shot, and the Bulls were sent packing? Would it have changed history? Would it be like going back through World War II history and picking out a specific bridge that, if not defended, might have meant defeat for the allies and more bratwurst on our table today? We'll never know.)

Verdict: Luck. Legendary luck, but luck. Sorry, MJ.

In 1987, Ralph Sampson knocked the Lakers out at the Forum with a series-ending, medium-range jumper that invented new ways to use all of the goal standard in basketball. Big men like Ralph rarely get to take the shot that could win a game, yet somehow on this night, Sampson was at the right place at the right moment. Catching left of the lane with his back turned, he spun right and flicked a high-arcing lollipop at the rim. Catching outside iron first, it then caromed high in the air, kissed the backboard softer than you do your grandma's cheek, and fell through as the horn sounded to eliminate Magic and Company and send the LA faithful home in stunned silence.

The fact that Sampson was right handed made the shot even more difficult than Fisher's, who's a natural southpaw.

Verdict: Luck. Blind, unalloyed, pure luck.

What about Christian Leattner over Kentucky? Skill, although shame on the 'Cats for not guarding inbounder Thomas Hill. Same for Magic's running mini-sky-hook to rip out the Celtics hearts at the Garden. Pure skill. You can even throw the Valpo buzzer beater against Ole Miss on the "skill" pile, because it was a combination play that had been worked on in practice and came up aces at the most critical moment.

Like any average Joe who has a near-model caliber girlfriend, perceptions vary as to what forces are at work. You'll call him a lucky bastard. He'll say it's because he's a swell guy.

When it's all said and done, I suppose every basketball buzzer beater deserves to be recognized as a stroke of hardwood genius for one simple reason - they all went in! Think about it. How many times have you discussed with a buddy all the great shots in basketball history that ALMOST went in?

Shaq can call those shots last week by any name he wants, if it will make him feel better. Last time I checked there were no asterisks in the playoff record that indicates "yeah, but you should have seen how lucky this guy's shot was!"