Almost everyone with an opinion expects Tiger Woods to win the 2008 Masters this weekend at the Augusta National Golf Club.
As the first major tournament of the season approaches, even the small pack of dissenters can agree on one thing:
The player with the best chance of beating Tiger Woods is Woods himself.
When Geoff Oglivy beat Woods at Doral to halt his tournament winning streak at five, Woods three-putted four times, made a couple of loose swings at the wrong time and still finished only two shots out of the lead on a course that fits his eye.
From a numbers standpoint Woods has posted an incredible seven victories in his last eight starts. Let that sink in for a minute: seven of eight.
While many believe that 2000 represents the pinnacle of Woods' already stellar career, 2008 has all the makings of one of the All-Time Greatest Golf Seasons ever by a touring professional.
How can we be sure we are on the verge of witnessing history?
Tiger told us.
When asked earlier this season about the possibility of sweeping all four majors (Masters, US Open, British Open and PGA Championship) and winning the "Grand Slam, Tiger calmly said that it could be done. It wasn't boasting. It wasn't hysteria. It wasn't the Beatles landing at JFK or Elvis on "The Ed Sullivan Show."
It was simply Tiger stating the obvious: that all it takes is four victories in a season and they have to be the right four victories. For most touring professionals, four tournament victories in a career would be a thrill. The idea of winning four tournaments in a season, and all majors, is beyond a dream. A lot of guys don't even get into all four majors. You've got to be in it to win it.
So, let's just say that Tiger gets a thorn in his paw and doesn't play his best at Augusta National this week. Who could defending champion Zach Johnson be presenting with a green jacket on Sunday? Here are some names:
Phil Mickelson. Lefty and The Striped One have captured six of the last 11 Masters. For Phil, it would further solidify the decision to leave longtime instructor and business partner Rick Smith for Tiger's former teacher, Butch Harmon. But face it, as much as everyone would love to see a Tiger-Phil rivalry bloom, it just isn't going to happen. No matter how nice a career Lefty has, he'll always be in Tiger's long shadow.
Jim Furyk. I always thought that Furyk would make more noise at Augusta than he has to date. With a unique swing that is closer in form to one of the National's club members than it is to a PGA Tour member, Furyk is a brilliant tactician with a solid short game. While it helps to be a bomber off the tee, it isn't a necessity to don a Green Jacket (see: Weir, Mike and Johnson, Zach) and Furyk has proven he can be sneaky long when he needs to be, as proved by his US Open Championship.
Sergio Garcia. I would like to see Garcia win one major, any major, so we can all just stop talking about Sergio being the best player to not yet win a major. Is he the best player to not yet win a major? I don't think so. To be considered one of the best, you have to win. A streaky putter at best, multiple wins in a season isn't part of the program for Garcia. Neither is whining about why you lost.
Ernie Els. I think Els is done. He doesn't seem to have that fire anymore. He has no spark. He has his majors, he's contended, he's won around the world, what is left? It could be that his win earlier this season at the PODS Championship was the worst thing that could have happened as it seemed to have doused the desire.
Others who could make noise this week? Out of last year's major championship winners, defending Masters champ Zach Johnson could repeat, but don't bet on it. Padraig Harrington was opportunistic in claiming the Claret Jug, but at Augusta National you have to try and create your own opportunities and in doing so, you also have to suffer the consequences much as Paddy Boy did on his 72nd hole at Carnoustie last year taking a double-bogey six.
I've always like Angel Cabrera and the way he goes after a golf course. However, the defending US Open Champ is a streaky putter and Augusta National's greens are no place to get on a bad streak. Aaron Baddeley or Adam Scott could contend. Both have the physical game necessary to win but do they have the mental game? Still for some, you have to keep putting yourself in position to win a major before finally breaking through.
Here are two dark horses picks for you: Justin Rose and Vaughn Taylor. Rose could be iffy due to past final rounds in tournaments where he couldn't finish the deal. A Rose in bloom at Augusta National has a sense of "spring is in the air" timing to it. Vaughn Taylor could just win it all. Not only does he have the game, he putts well using a SeeMore flat stick (the same kind Zach Johnson used to win his major last season) and has a good head on his shoulders.
My pick is Tiger. While that may not be earth shattering or mind blowing, keep in mind he's had two weeks to prepare for the season's first major at a golf course that suits his game like few others and he's got a chip on his shoulder. After all, he's already lost once this season.
Other Masters Notes:
The Par-3 contest, is sometimes better than the tournament itself. It's another thing that makes the first major of the year special.
So much of what happens at Augusta is dependent upon the weather. If it is dry and Augusta National can play fast and firm, it will bring more players into the mix due to the fact that the long hitters will have to go with something other than the driver from the tee box, while shorter hitters can play risk/reward with the big stick. The early forecast is calling for possible moisture on Thursday and Friday, with some sun on the weekend. Temperatures should average around 80 degrees for the tournament.
As the season's first major is upon us, you might also want to know that the US Open is June 12-15 at Torrey Pines, The British Open is July 17-20 at Royal Birkdale and the PGA Championship is Aug. 7-10 at Oakland Hills. That's where Tiger will be chasing the Grand Slam after his victory Sunday.
