Is the Age of Walker over in Wisconsin? It’s too soon to tell, of course. The next governor’s race isn’t for three years, a lifetime in politics (and then some). However, any way you cut it, the new poll Thursday from Marquette University Law School was not good for our Republican governor. His team didn’t even try to spin it; they just said the only poll that matters is on election day.

Whether it was approval ratings (way underwater, worse than Obama) or his ability to deliver our state (a weakened Hillary still wins, and Jeb fares better against her, fueled by the Hispanic vote) or policy positions (most don’t like the big UW cuts, and 52 percent think the state is on the wrong track) or any number of other points, voters overall are not pleased with Scott Walker – unless they’re Hispanic or Republican voters. They still like him, although Republicans like him slightly less than they used to.

Even worse was the "empathy factor" – 58.8 percent of Wisconsinites think Walker doesn’t care about people like them. Ouch. This is probably due in part to the fact that 63 percent are hacked off he is running for president (although 60 percent of Republicans are OK with it, almost no Independents and Democrats are).

So, here are 10 big takeaways from the new poll:

1. Walker has lost Independents big time, but the Pope hasn't

Independents started splitting away from the governor in the last poll in April, when most of them said they disapproved of Walker (that was the big plummet). But that’s worsened. Two-thirds think negatively of him now.

It’s not like Independents are fleeing for the anti-establishment Trump or the Independent Sanders or Cruz railing against the Washington cabal, either. They don’t like any of them. A grouchy lot, this year. Still, if they were forced to pick between Hillary and Walker, Wisconsin Independents would overwhelmingly vote for Hillary. Although they don’t like her, either.

Those grouchy Independents do like someone, though: the Pope (yes, that question was actually asked). This is a big change. It’s an election-costing change if it sticks.

In the Marquette poll in October 2014 – before he was re-elected governor – about half of Independents had a favorable opinion of Walker. But he’s lost about half of them. Now, more Independents don’t even support Walker as a person likely to get things done, a marker he fares well on overall. And 76 percent don’t think he cares about people like them.

_{Walker’s approval ratings with independents (voters overall like him slightly more when they are asked to consider whether they approve of how he’s doing as governor than overall but general trends are similar)}

It goes without saying: Walker can’t win Wisconsin again without more Independents – especially since his support among Republicans has also eroded somewhat since October 2014. However, the vast majority of Republicans still like Walker.

Hard to see how this trend gets better as Walker ups the ante on the national stage, trying to trump Trump on the right (while somehow arguing his central appeal is being able to win in a blue state that no longer likes him much, unless you’re a Republican).

2. Trumpmania hasn't really hit Wisconsin

Donald Trump didn’t even come close to upsetting Walker’s berth at the top of the GOP primary field here, only bringing in 9 percent of the total compared to 25 percent for Walker.  And his disapproval ratings are sky high. 62 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Trump – partly because a whopping 79.4 percent of Hispanics don’t like him (in fairness to Trump, 66 percent of Hispanics don’t like Hillary, either).

Luckily for him, they didn’t poll support for Deez Nuts. Deez Nuts might have been higher.

If you dig into the bowels of the poll, Trump is not polling well with women here, and the vast majority of Wisconsinites doesn’t want all illegal immigrants deported, so that doesn’t help him either. In contrast, in other states, such as Florida, Trump is now leading the Republican field even over hometown faves Bush and Rubio.

That doesn’t mean Trump has gained no traction. After all, basically no one supported him here in April. And literally no one wants other Republican candidates like the non-existent Jindal, Christie, Perry or Kasich. And, if Wisconsin Republicans had to choose between Trump or Clinton, they overwhelmingly would vote for Trump (Independents and Democrats would not, though).

Why is Trump not gaining traction in Wisconsin like he is elsewhere, though? After all, we have a history of sort of liking maverick candidates. It’s probably because Walker is still siphoning away enough votes on the right to prevent Trump from rising further in a crowded GOP field. For now anyway.

Although it’s down, Walker still has more loyalty among Wisconsin Republicans than Jeb and Rubio apparently enjoy in Florida (although they are splitting the hometown loyalty vote there). But there’s a gap between Republican approval ratings of Walker and whether they would pick him as president – when given the choice of a bunch of other Republicans, some people who like him want others more. That’s kind of interesting. It’s kind of like the girl who ditches the guy she was willing to accompany to prom when a more popular guy comes along and asks too.

3. The GOP has great appeal to Wisconsin Hispanics. Except Trump. They can’t stand Trump. Unless he’s running against Hillary. Then maybe.

Hispanics really, really don’t have good opinions of Trump (no shocker, there). They don’t like Hillary either by wide margins, though. Hispanic voters would vote huge for Jeb Bush against Hillary, 70-25, and would pick Walker over Hillary by lesser margins, 52-44.

But guess what? Hispanic voters overall would also pick Trump over Hillary. Kind of. If absolutely forced to pick, 36 percent of Wisconsin Hispanics polled would choose Trump, and 32 percent would choose Hillary (27 percent basically say "are you out of your mind" and said they won’t vote for either one. Ok, the poll just asked them to check "neither").

Turns out that Hispanics in Wisconsin like Scott Walker more than whites and blacks do – a lot more. And most are happy that he’s running for president (unlike most blacks and whites, who are very peeved about it). More Hispanics voting in the GOP field also pick Walker first, while black voters in the GOP field favor Bush, Huckabee, and Paul. In contrast, all of Rubio’s support came from whites. Hispanics also liked Carly Fiorina.

Hispanics voting in the Dem primary like Hillary and, secondarily, Biden.

In fact, more than half of Hispanics think Walker cares about people like them. Interestingly, only 37.3 percent of whites and 27.5 percent of blacks think Walker "is someone who cares about people like me," but 53.5 percent of Hispanics think he is.

They also have more positive impressions of the Tea Party than whites and blacks do. More than 45 percent of Hispanics had a positive impression of the Tea Party. However, only 8 percent didn’t – the rest just hadn’t heard enough about it. In contrast, fewer than 25 percent of whites and of blacks like the Tea Party.

Hispanics also support Ron Johnson over Feingold by a LOT (69-21). In contrast, blacks support Feingold by a lot, and whites are divided, but support Feingold.

Hispanics also have better impressions of the state budget and our job creation pace than other ethnic groups. Most Hispanics think the state is going in the right direction (most blacks and whites do not). And they are much more likely to agree with the GOP on the 20-week abortion ban and oppose gay marriage. They are even more positive on the UW cuts (with blacks the least positive and both whites and blacks not positive overall that the cuts won’t harm the quality of education).

When you boil it down, Hispanics are super happy right now with our state and our governor. Well, more of them, anyway. Walker could use this as a selling point on the campaign trail.

4. Women love Ben Carson, but the gender gap is growing

Well, Republican women love Ben Carson anyway. The Carson surge in Wisconsin is largely due to women. His thoughtful, intellectual approach seems to have appealed to them (as opposed to the Trump bluster). Women also like Marco Rubio. In contrast, some candidates appeal more to men than women – Cruz and Trump, for starters. About the same number of men and women support Walker, although he was slightly more popular with women, which is interesting. It’s also interesting that Carly Fiorina polls better with men than women.

Overall, women have really soured on Republicans, though. Feingold’s five-point lead over Johnson is due to a big gender gap, and Walker’s unfavorables are much higher among women. Women are more likely to think the economy isn’t going so well and to dislike the UW cuts. True, there’s always a gender gap, but it seems like it’s growing.

Walker doesn’t do well with women overall, though:

Feingold’s slim lead in the U.S. Senate race is due to the gender gap:

5. Hillary’s in trouble, but Bernie has no appeal with minorities

Hillary wins Wisconsin no matter which way you cut it, and she still dominates the Democratic primary field. However, she has also seen her support plummet to 44 percent. And Jeb Bush isn’t that far behind her here. Also, more people think unfavorably about Hillary in Wisconsin than like her.

It’s the Bernie Effect (and with all those emails, that’s not going away). But if Bernie wants to take off in Wisconsin, he needs to reach beyond white voters. Only 2 percent of blacks and 7 percent of Hispanics would vote for him, compared to 33 percent of whites. The trend is flipped with Biden, who does well with minorities but not whites.

This Hillary in trouble trend is not unique to Wisconsin. A new poll that came out in Florida this week shows Hillary losing that swing state – even to Trump. Hillary appeals to all three ethnic groups (the poll only lists whites, blacks, and Hispanics).

6. Most Wisconsinites don’t want Walker OR Clinton as President, even in their own parties

Walker’s numbers for president in this poll in Wisconsin remind me of Trump’s in Iowa. Yeah, they’re ahead, but when you add up the opposition, more people want someone else. So when the field shrinks, where do those other votes go? Hard to say, since opposition voters presumably know all there is to learn about Walker (and Clinton) and still don’t want them. They’re seeking something else, a fresh face. When you look at people’s first and second choices, Walker still isn’t that high. He’s the second choice of 17.9 percent.

Only 25 percent of GOP or GOP leaning voters want Walker as their first choice. It’s closer on the Democratic side (44.4 percent want Hillary), but when you add up all the opposition votes (for Sanders, Biden, and a smattering of others), slightly more people prefer someone who is not Hillary. She is not igniting the passions on the left like Barack Obama did.

Bush would lose to her by only 5.1 percent.

7. The 20-week abortion ban isn’t as unpopular with women as Democrats say

Wisconsinites were basically divided down the middle on whether they support a ban on abortion after 20 weeks – almost literally down the middle, when you consider the margin for error. That’s true, too, though, of men AND of women; in fact, more women support the ban than oppose it in this poll. Overall, 48.3 percent of Wisconsinites support the ban and 44.3 percent oppose it. So much for evidence that this is a war against women. Apparently, a bunch of women don’t think so.

Support ban: Men, 48.6% and Women, 48.1%
Oppose ban: Men, 42.5%, and Women, 45.8%

8. Going after the UW is a loser issue for Republicans

I work there, my opinions are my own, and I don’t speak for the institution where I work. However, I will say this: Judging from this poll, Republicans picked a loser issue by warring with UW (and if you think they weren’t "warring," then they lost the PR battle).

Most people – men AND women – think the big cuts to UW will harm the quality of education (57.6 percent compared to 37.8 percent who think they won’t). But this is even truer when you look at the crosstabs on gender. Women really think the cuts will be harmful. 52.7 percent of men polled said the UW cuts would harm the quality of education. For women, that number was 62.7 percent.

If Republicans want to keep losing women – especially Independent women – keep warring against the UW. Unlike unions, it’s an iconic brand. No wonder Walker has stopped talking about it. The issue didn’t play. That’s the bottom line.   

9. Incumbents are not popular

People are hacked off at politics as usual here because incumbents aren’t doing well. Tammy Baldwin’s approval ratings are upside down, Ron Johnson would lose to Russ Feingold (granted Feingold’s still so well-known he’s almost an incumbent), Walker’s approval ratings are in the tank, and more Democrats want someone other than Hillary (not really an incumbent, but a standard bearer while the anti-establishment Sanders is surging). Incumbents beware. The public is restless with the establishment (surprisingly that hasn’t translated to more Trump support here).

As for Baldwin, 40.3 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, compared to 35.7 percent who have a favorable opinion. The VA opioid scandal clearly took a toll.

10. Ron Johnson has a chance

The conventional wisdom is that Ron Johnson is toast in the U.S. Senate race because turnout will favor Russ Feingold due to the race being in a presidential year, because Feingold is still a strong candidate since he held the post before and because Johnson hasn’t done a lot that’s gotten attention. I think there’s a chance that’s still true.

But the poll is pretty good news for Johnson, even though it shows him losing by five points. That’s down pretty significantly from April, and one-third of the public still doesn’t know who he is. You might say it’s bad that he’s registered so little of an impression that one-third of the electorate knows him less than they probably know what Donald Trump rates Heidi Klum.

Fair enough. But it also gives him an opportunity. It means that a lot of voters are not hardened against him – they just don’t know him. And a big advertising campaign can change that. Of course, Mr. Campaign Finance Reform (Feingold, yes that was sarcasm) will spend a lot of cash too, so this is going to be a game of definition. But it’s still anyone’s game at this point. Also, Johnson’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are about even.

However, more people know who Feingold is, and his favorable ratings are higher than his unfavorable, showing Johnson may have a tough time defining Feingold negatively in people’s minds. Thus, the fact a bunch more people don’t know who Johnson is at all is also an opportunity for Feingold.