Awards season may feel even longer than trying to get all the way through "Blonde" (cough, move the ceremony to February, cough) but the big night is finally here. On Sunday at 7 p.m. on ABC, the Oscars – hosted for the third time by Jimmy Kimmel – will take the stage and reward some of the big screen's best, biggest and brightest from 2022. 

But who'll get their hot-dog fingers on a golden trophy on Sunday night? Will "Top Gun: Maverick," after roaring through cinemas all year long, win some awards to go along with its box office billions? And whose Oscar dreams will take a vicious slap in the face like ... huh, no examples come to mind. Anyways, here are my picks for who will win (and who, in a just world, should win) at the 95th Academy Awards. 

Best Picture

Will win: "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Should win: "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

This year's Academy Awards are filled with exciting competitions and potentially unpredictable results – weirdly enough, except with the night's top prize. 

The multiverse-blending emotional ringer that is "Everything Everywhere All At Once" won over audiences when it came out last spring and became the rare indie smash. Part kung-fu action movie, part bizarro comedy, part emotional mother-daughter drama, part ... hot dog fingers(?), "EEAAO" scored rave reviews and more than $70 million at the box office. Almost a year later, the buzz hasn't died off – even as it took over frontrunner status, winning Best Picture at pretty much every Oscar precursor awards show this season. In a way, it's a perfect storm, simultaneously a populist crowd-pleaser and an original full-strength creative swing for the fences the Academy likes to reward and showcase – just with more buttplug fight scenes, Chapstick eating and talking raccoon chefs than the usual. 

As that last sentence may have hinted, "Everything Everywhere" is an odd motion picture – certainly the oddest one to win the Academy's top prize, if it wins Sunday night. (And we just had a Best Picture with fishman sex within the past ten years.) That originality – despite riffing on loads of films and genres, it's unlike much else you're seen – is both the best thing "EEAAO" has going for it, but also exactly what could leave room for an upset. While the Academy has gotten much younger, more diverse and more hip in recent years, it still has its more traditional voters. ("Green Book," after all, was just four years ago.) And those traditional voters may find all the googly-eyed multiverse-hopping ... a bit much. 

Where could a potential surprise come from? War films haven't had much Oscar luck lately (the last Best Picture war film was "The Hurt Locker") but Netflix's viscerally overwhelming "All Quiet on the Western Front" definitely has its fans – especially amongst international voters, where the WWI book adaptation won Best Picture and more at the BAFTAs (aka the British Oscars). It's a more traditional and technically familiar type of bombast and maximalism some voters could get behind – plus the Big Red Streaming Monolith has really put its campaign muscle behind the war movie. And as we saw with Apple and "CODA" last year (remember "CODA"?), big money campaigning can work – though that movie was more approachable and faced a more wide open Best Picture field.

As for the other potential dark horse winner ... hear me out ... talk to me, Goose. 

That's right: "Top Gun: Maverick." Scoff all you want – but the movie was a gigantic hit and not just with general audiences, as critics loved the high-flying blockbuster legacy-quel too. Sure, summer action movies don't tend to win the big prize – but summer action movies, even when they finagle their way amongst the Best Picture nominees, don't tend to get the kind of glowing reviews and reaction that "Maverick" did. And they don't tend to get the reputation as "the movie that saved movie theaters" like Tom Cruise's latest did – something that might speak to the producer side of the Academy, while the movie's ode to movie stardom (or at least Tom Cruisedom) could speak to the acting branch. People like to vote for movies they love – and people loved "Top Gun: Maverick." 

That being said, when "Top Gun" had a chance to beat "Everything Everywhere" head to head, it fell short – even at the Producers Guild Awards, the most blockbuster-friendly of the guild awards. (It probably hurts "Maverick" that "EEAAO" was a hit too, stealing some of its populist pick thunder.) And if the Academy loved the movie that much, it probably would've showed up in more places like Best Actor for Cruise, Best Director for Joseph Kosinski or even Best Cinematography. Oh well. To quote Don Draper, that's what the money's for. 

So you can to try talk yourself into that or "All Quiet," as I just did ... but at the end of the night, it sure looks like the top prize is going to the guys whose last joint directorial effort was the Daniel Radcliffe farting corpse jetski movie. Just like we all predicted. 

Best Actor

Will win: Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"

Should win: Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

We reach our first true competition of the night, bringing a battle of conventional Oscar narratives. Will the Academy go the way of the comeback story and transformation with Brendan Fraser in "The Whale"? Or will it crown an up-and-coming new star from a popular musical biopic with Austin Butler in "Elvis"? (Pour one out for the Colin Farrell in "The Banshees of Inisherin" campaign. He's put in great character work over the past decade, and it's great to see the Academy finally recognize it, but the nomination is unfortunately as far as that recognition will go this year.) 

Butler has the precursor wins – both at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs – as well as modern Oscars' love of musical biopics on his side, not to mention the fact that his performance is lightning. Even "Elvis" detractors love his performance, capturing the exhilarating star charisma that helped turn Presley into a pop culture phenomenon. This isn't "Bohemian Rhapsody" 2.0 breaking out with a pair of fake teeth winning Best Actor; Butler's genuinely very good, popping on screen even while surrounded by the maximalist style of director Baz Luhrmann. The Oscars aren't quite like the Golden Globes in their thirsty to anoint new stars ... but they're not entirely against it, especially in the show's hunt for viewers and younger relevance. 

That being said, Fraser's quite good too as the overweight recluse in "The Whale," providing much-needed humanity to the secluded character drama. Like Butler, he also has a precursor (the Screen Actors Guild award), recent Oscar trends on his side – their love of physical transformation, in his case – and a compelling Hollywood narrative, returning to the spotlight after enduring emotional and physical wounds in the industry. And as Renee Zellweger's "Judy" Oscar showed, sometimes a good real-life Hollywood comeback narrative is all you need to fuel your way to the stage – regardless of the movie getting you there.

And indeed, that's the problem for Fraser: the actual movie. The thing about "The Whale" is ... people don't like it. Sure, it has its fans – but the viewers who hate it DEEPLY hate it, accusing it of offensively gawking and leering at its overweight lead. There's a reason why the drama isn't in the conversation beyond the performance categories this awards season ... and (*afixes tin foil cap*) there's a reason why its studio, A24, hasn't exactly worked hard to keep "The Whale" available to audiences, gone from many theaters during the voting season and still unavailable on streaming outside $20 PVOD. Sure, A24 doesn't have a built-in streaming service like many others ... but I also think the studio's juuuust fine letting the buzz of the performance carry its campaign rather than the performance itself and the movie around it. 

It speaks to how much people love Fraser that, even with the movie's divisive nature, they love seeing him back in the spotlight and voting him back on their biggest stage. I believe that gives him the nudge over Butler, whose stardom is just beginning and should bring plenty of opportunities to win another time. And also maybe I just want him to win because, if so, this would be the first time since 2017 that none of the performance winners were playing real people. We love to see the Oscars not become a Best Impression contest!

Best Actress

Will win: Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Should win: Cate Blanchett, "Tar"

Ana de Armas, Andrea Riseborough, Andrea Riseborough's bizarre viral nomination push and Michelle Williams: We've had a lot of fun and made a lot of memories this campaign season. But you might as well not show up Sunday night – and certainly not with victory speeches. This is between Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, a race between two great actresses delivering arguably two of their most definitive great performances. Frankly, they should both probably get their Oscars this year. Can we do that? Can we have a tie, please?

While betting on a tie and being proven correct would be my personal "Uncut Gems" finale, I'll play it safe and pick an actual winner: Yeoh.

Again, both performances are killer. "Tar," one of the best movies of the past year, IS Cate Blanchett's commanding performance, so fully formed that people actually believed it was secretly a biopic; "EEAAO" meanwhile shows the full range of Yeoh's abilities – funny, flustered, fierce, a physical force in the fight sequences, cold, warm and beyond – without ever hitting a wrong note. She gets the nudge, though, simply because Blanchett's won before – twice, in fact. The Oscars aren't as squeamish about multi-year winners as they once were; Frances McDormand just won her third two years ago. But McDormand's closest competition was Viola Davis, a fellow previous Oscar recipient. This year, Blanchett's up against someone who not only hasn't won before but somehow hasn't even been nominated. They'll amend that Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Should win: Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

OK, we have our first lock of the night. "Everything Everywhere All At Once" could win a little or a lot on Sunday night – but no matter the number, one of them is going to be Best Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan. It's a terrific performance that displays thrilling range – and that's before we even get to the actor's moving offscreen comeback narrative, back in the Hollywood spotlight after decades shunned by the system, and delightful awards season presence full of ecstatic acceptance speeches and fanboying event photos. If he had any competition to worry about (and make no mistake, he does not) it would be either Barry Keoghan or Brendan Gleeson from "Banshees." Co-nominees, however, tend to split the vote and ... wait, why am I bothering to rationalize this any further? It's going to be Ke Huy Quan, done and done.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Should win: Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

OK, we're back to CHAOS as the first award scheduled for the night is also the most unpredictable. Pretty much anyone could win here. (Well, except Hong Chau in "The Whale." Sorry – loved you in "The Menu" too! "Driveways" is a hidden gem!) 

Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon all won notable precursor awards, so that metric is useless, thanks a whole bunch. As noted before, Oscar logic typically says that nominated co-stars will split the vote – and I could very much see that being the case for Curtis and her "EEAAO" co-star Stephanie Hsu. Hsu's performance undoubtedly carries more weight in the movie, but Curtis seriously committed to the bit – plus she's got the unofficial career achievement vote going for her. But so does Bassett, also in position to score Academy recognition across decades of incredible and often overlooked work. 

So will the three of them nullify one another, leaving Condon – who gets to play the most sane and relatable person of the bunch in "Banshees" – to sneak through for the win? Doubtful. The awards enthusiasm and buzz on "Inisherin" took a hard hit since its heyday several months ago – and if it's going to get any recognition on Sunday night, it'll probably be for the overall writing rather than any one performance. So I'll stick with Bassett, whose wounded yet fiery performance fuels "Wakanda Forever" (and really lacks its center when she's gone). Congrats, Marvel: You finally scored a major Oscar. Good for you; you needed a win after "Quantumania."

Best Director

Will win: Daniels, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Should win: Daniels, "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

There are a lot of close horse races in key categories at this year's Oscars. This ... is not one of them. I'd maybe see a closer competition if Edward Berger for "All Quiet on the Western Front" got the final slot over "Triangle of Sadness," since he won the BAFTA and it's the kind of technical showcase that voters tend to reward here. But since he didn't, it's Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert's race to lose. "The Fabelmans" is too polarizingly personal, "Tar" is too artsy, "Banshees" is more notable for its writing than its directing and "Triangle" is just happy to be there. Add in the fact that the duo of Daniels won the top prize from the Director's Guild – a precursor that, over the past decade, has matched up with the Oscars every year except 2019 – and I feel confident saying the helmers will have an Academy Award to put in their trophy case, right next to their MTV VMA for directing the "Turn Down for What" music video.

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Should win: "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

It's dominated thus far – but I doubt "Everything Everywhere All At Once" will win everything everywhere on Sunday night. The Academy does love to spread the love around, and this seems like a prime place to give "Banshees of Inisherin" its shine. If voters can't decide whose performance in the dark comedy is most worthy, might as well give it to the overall screenplay from writer-director Martin McDonagh – who, as bonus voter motivation, is oddly due considering his lone Oscar win was for a 2006 short film, not "In Bruges" or "Three Billboards." That being said, if "EEAAO" does end up winning this award near the middle of the ceremony, everything not called "Everything Everywhere All At Once" can call it an early night. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: "Women Talking"

Should win: "Glass Onion"

Oh great, another fully unpredictable category. I'm either going to look like a genius or a dingus this year. (Probably the latter, no matter the results.) 

Despite being true Best Picture contenders, both "All Quiet on the Western Front" and "Top Gun: Maverick" are more beloved for their technical achievements than their screenwriting ones. (Though, to defend the latter, that blockbuster's crowd-pleasing visceral and emotional payoffs didn't happen by themselves!) No matter the case, they'll get rewarded elsewhere. There's oddly a growing sense that "Living" might snag the upset here, using "Gods and Monsters" modestly winning in 1999 with just actor and screenplay nominations as precedent. Suuuuuure, you do that: I'm betting the rather moving "Ikiru" remake is too small and under-the-radar to pull that stunner off.

That leaves "Glass Onion" and "Women Talking," two good and well-written movies that both never quite built up any awards season momentum. Only one of them has a Best Picture nod, though – and add in its Writers Guild win a week ago, "Women Talking" will be women winning on Sunday.

Best Animated Film

Will win: "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"

Should win: "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On"

Finally, another easy prediction! There are a lot of charming nominees in this bunch, but Guillermo del Toro's fairy tale is particularly a visual marvel – as one would expect from del Toro's famous imagination – with a mesmerizing stop-motion style that makes the hard work and behind-the-scenes sweat impossible to ignore. And even though this category can be unkind to those it deems outsiders (as the snubbed "The LEGO Movie" can attest) the Oscar-winning "Shape of Water" director has spent so much of the awards circuit cheerleading animation and clapping back at its "kid stuff" reputation that you imagine he's won over any remaining resistance.

I hope he celebrates his win Sunday night by ceremonially burning any and all copies of that OTHER "Pinocchio" movie that came out last year.

Best International Film

Will win: "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Should win: "Close"

I could come up with an argument that "The Quiet Girl" has built some recent momentum or that "Close" will win because it made me cry or that "EO" has the edge because the Oscars famously love donkey cinema. But I've already used up enough of my word count, so I'll make this quick: How many of these films are also nominated for Best Picture? Oh, just "All Quiet on the Western Front"? Then we have our winner. 

Best Cinematography

Will win: "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Should win: "Tar"

Cinematography is one of my pet categories at the Oscars – and unfortunately this year it's a pet that keeps eating my shoes and peeing in the house. There were a lot of excellently shot movies this past year ... and not many of them are here. Instead, we've got predictable stuff like the obligatory Roger Deakins nomination, the obligatory Alejandro G. Iñárritu stunt nod and the obligatory war movie. Sigh. 

Mandy Walker's work in "Elvis" got a boost last week winning the Cinematographer's Guild award – and her victory Sunday night would make overdue history as the first woman to ever win the prize. However, of all the eye-catching elements in "Elvis" – and this is a Baz Luhrmann movie, so there are OH GOD SO MANY – cinematography ranks lower on the list, so I think they'll reward the biopic elsewhere. "Tar" is my particular pick, a key part of crafting the character's descent from reality to surreal anxious nightmare (also: SECRET GHOSTS!), but this award tends to lean "most" rather than "best" – which leaves "All Quiet on the Western Front" and "Bardo."

Iñárritu's showy approach tends to be gold for cinematographers (see "Birdman" and "The Revenant"), and voters clearly appreciated Darius Khondji's work since they nominated a movie they otherwise fully ignored. Plus, Khondji is almost reaching Deakins level of overdue appreciation; this is his first nomination since 1997 in a career filled with iconic stylish work in "Delicatessen," "Se7en," "Lost City of Z," "Uncut Gems" and more. If they're feeling sentimental, he could score a career achievement upset – but I'll go with the other Netflix movie in the category, the one with more nominations, more relevance as a Best Picture contender, more voter eyeballs, more campaign money pushing it and more, just, MORE. "All Quiet" has gotten where it is thanks to its big, loud, blunt visceral approach – and when in doubt (all together now!) it's "most" over "best."

Best Editing

Will win: "Top Gun: Maverick"

Should win: "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Common Oscar logic once taught that Best Picture and Editing align, but that's ... not actually true. Maybe in terms of just the nominees but not with the actual winner, especially in recent Oscar history. The last Best Picture winner to score the editing prize was "Argo" in 2012, and over the past 30-plus years, the night's top film was victorious here less than half the time. 

So how do we pick here? Recent winners tend to lean toward either bombastic war/action movies ("Dune," "Hacksaw Ridge," "Dunkirk") or music films ("Bohemian Rhapsody," "Whiplash," "Sound of Metal"). That would seemingly line up "All Quiet on the Western Front" or "Elvis" as the champ, but surprisingly only the latter is here. And while the musical biopic certainly is one of the most edited movies – classic Baz, never met a filmmaking flourish he didn't love to death – that didn't win over the ACE Eddie Awards, aka the editor's guild awards, which gave its prizes to "Top Gun" and "Everything Everywhere All At Once." But the Eddies and the Oscars haven't agreed on a winner since 2018 ... soooooo I return to my original question: How do we pick here?

While I love the work in "EEAAO," tying together all of those multiverses in a way that's both manic but coherent, I'm picking "Maverick," which would fall in line with recent big, loud action-adjacent winners like "Dune" and "Ford v Ferrari" AND would line up with the editors' own pick. Plus, the Academy's going to want to give The Movie That Saved Cinemas some love somewhere. Huh, turns out that was a pretty clear and obvious pick all along. I guess we know what article certainly isn't going to win any editing awards!

Best Production Design

Will win: "Elvis"

Should win: "Babylon"

And now we get to the portion of the night where "Elvis" is going to win a whole bunch of Oscars. Do not let this convince you that "Elvis" will win Best Picture. "Mad Max: Fury Road" Technical Awards Syndrome is real and can affect anyone. 

Anyways, "Babylon" certainly has a case to win with its simultanously lavish and grungy look at old-school Hollywood – but with a three-hour running time, few major noms and a divisive approach to its subject matter complete with pretty much every single bodily fluid making a cameo, it's not at the front of many voters' minds. "The Fabelmans" is too mellow, "Avatar" is too computer-generated and "All Quiet" is too standard war material. That leaves the over-the-top blinding blizzard of "Elvis" to feel a hunka-hunk of burning love from the Academy. 

Best Costume Design

Will win: "Elvis"

Should win: "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris"

I would absolutely love to see the delightful "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" win here, a very charming movie whose story and emotion rests entirely on falling head over heels in love with a dress – and effectly does exactly that. Turns out my favorite genre of film is "Lesley Manville loves fashion!" Unfortunately, no one is thinking about or watching the lone-nominee "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris" right now – so I'll once again give it to the gloriously gaudy rhinestoned excess of "Elvis."

Best Makeup

Will win: "Elvis"

Should win: "The Batman"

In recent years, this award's tended to go the way of a single leading showcase transformation (see Christian Bale in "Vice," Gary Oldman in "Darkest Hour," Jessica Chastain in "The Eyes of Tammy Faye") rather than an overall full-cast hair and makeup job. So I originally assumed this was walk for "The Whale," since Fraser's transformation has almost single-handedly made him a Best Actor frontrunner for the whole season. (Yes, Hollywood may be slowly moving away from fat suits, but the Academy sure isn't.) But then I suddenly remembered that "Elvis" had a transformation of its own, helping turn Tom Hanks into a music industry gremlin. Funny how I choose to forget that performance happened  ... 

Anyways, combine all the glitzy decade-spanning showbiz hair and makeup with that one showcase metamorphosis – A body of work and THE body of work – and you get another technical win for "Elvis."

Best Score

Will win: "Babylon"

Should win: "Babylon"

Oh would you look at that, another wholly up-in-the-air race! If the Academy sticks with spreading the love around, here would be a good place to honor "The Fabelmans," in the process giving the 90-year-old John Williams a final Oscar bow before he may or may not retire. There's also "All Quiet on the Western Front," whose score is critical to its onslaught.

And then there's "Babylon" again. Oh "Babylon." Even those who loathed the elephant-pooping period piece loved Justin Hurwitz's brash and brassy score. Sure, it's a divisive Oscar flop – and despite his winning work with "La La Land," Hurwitz isn't a guaranteed hit with the Academy. (Flashback to his "First Man" score going from frontrunner to complete nomination day snub.) But I'll give it the nod ... if only because it's the music literally fueling me as I write this very paragraph. 

Best Song

Will win: "Naatu Naatu" from "RRR"

Should win: "Naatu Naatu" from "RRR"

Point: Rihanna and Lady Gaga are here with songs from major blockbusters. So is Diane Warren, who has now been nominated 14 times across three and a half decades without a win. 

Counterpoint:

There are a lot of big names here and even some decent songs – but only one true banger. (Also: Even if the Academy wanted to finally reward Warren, are we sure the movie she's nominated for, "Tell It Like a Woman," actually exists?)

Best Sound

Will win: "Top Gun: Maverick"

Should win: "Top Gun: Maverick"

Sure, a win for either "Elvis" and "All Quiet" would certainly fall in line with the Academy's love of music and war movies ... but (*VROOOOMING AWESOME DEAFENING FIGHTER JET SOUNDS*) WOOOO YEEEAH! In addition to giving last year's populist favorite another primetime nod, "Maverick" deserves the award just for the opening montage redux alone, reminding us that go-fast sky jets are indeed cool. 

Best Visual Effects

Will win: "Avatar: The Way of Water"

Should win: "Avatar: The Way of Water"

Payakan the space whale of vengeance deserves the Oscar for best visual effects ... and maybe also Best Supporting Actor too. But in all seriousness, James Cameron and his team managed to exceed expectations and defy doubters once again with his sequel and its utterly immersive water worlds. I had to remind myself multiple times watching the movie that, no, pretty much none of this was real – a magic trick that gets even more impressive watching the behind-the-scenes secrets. 

This is insane. Like, completely batshit. How. pic.twitter.com/OfsgWBgbBU — A.B. Allen (@A_B_Allen) February 11, 2023

Never bet against James Cameron, especially in this category this year. 

Best Documentary

Will win: "Navalny"

Should win: "All the Beauty and the Bloodshed"

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's virtual invitation may have gotten lost in the mail, but the Academy surely still wants to show support and make a statement – so they'll do it by giving the win here for "Navalny," an urgent and thrilling doc about one of Putin's most determined political rivals, featuring some jaw-dropping behind-the-curtain sequences that need to be seen to be believed. The voters haven't gone quite as overtly political in recent years, so there's a chance the gentle beauty of "All That Breathes" or "Fire of Love" could pull off the upset – but like Sean Penn smelting his Oscars, I believe it when I see it. 

Best Live Action Short Film

Will win: "Le Pupille"

Should win: "Le Pupille"

Hello, and welcome to Where Your Oscar Ballot Goes To Die Country! Flip a coin, throw a dart, maybe go all March Madness on it and pick the winner based on who has the best mascot – all valid ways to guess the Oscars shorts winners! Some have given an edge to "An Irish Goodbye" with its broadly appealing emotional tug and the fact that it's the lone English-language nominee, complete with a precursor win at the BAFTAs. I'll go with "Le Pupille," though, since it comes with Oscar favorite Alfonso Cuaron's name on the producer's line and the power of The Mouse House behind it. Makes as much as sense as any other guess!

Best Animated Short Film

Will win: "The Boy, The Mule, The Fox and The Horse"

Should win: "An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It"

Imagine having an Oscar-nominated movie called "My Year of Dicks" – and somehow you're only the SECOND weirdest title of the bunch.

Yes, take a bow, "An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It": You definitely win Best Name at this year's Academy Awards, and if we lived in a just world, the surreal, self-reflexive short would also win the actual Oscar too. The quirky clip, however, is probably a little too odd for the Academy (though this is a year with a Best Picture frontrunner with a buttplug kung fu fight) and "The Boy, The Mule, The Fox and The Horse" not only has more traditional inspirational heft, it also has Apple money. Plus, while "An Ostrich" may have a very memorable name, "The Boy, The Mule, The Fox and The Horse" has some even better ones behind it: Gabriel Byrne and Idris Elba as voices, plus J.J. Abrams and Woody Harrelson as producers. And in these less showy categories (aka the ones voters think about less) big names can make a big difference.

Best Documentary - Short Subject

Will win: "The Elephant Whisperers"

Should win: "Stranger at the Gate"

Again, we're in random dart-throw territory – but considering this is the same Academy that loved the Netflix octopus doc a few years ago, I'll go with the equally lush and beautifully shot Netflix elephant doc. Animals: They just think they're neat!