Ted Thompson may have called himself "just a country bumpkin" last week, but the past dozen years suggest that, when it comes to drafting, he’s really more of a savant.
Following his oft-reiterated mantra of selecting the best player available, regardless of need, and building the roster through the draft, Thompson has constructed a team that’s made eight playoff appearances and won five NFC North titles and a Super Bowl in his tenure. Draft and develop, Packers fans have heard from the front office for more than a decade, draft and develop.
And indeed, the results of that approach have been impressive. Green Bay’s current roster of 62 players contains 35 drafted by Thompson. Of the 20 players to start at least 10 games for the Packers in 2015, 19 were Thompson picks. His selections have included nine Pro Bowlers and two All-Pros. Sporting News found the Packers to be the best-drafting team over the last decade, giving them an ‘A’ grade for the past 10 years of picking. Green Bay’s decade of divisional dominance has been driven by superior drafting, according to Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric, which indicates the Packers have gained more overall player impact from the last 11 drafts than their NFC North rivals.
In Chicago on Thursday night, Thompson begins his 12th NFL Draft as Green Bay’s general manager, holding nine picks, including No. 27 in the first round, and having few true holes on his talented roster. Only three teams are getting better Super Bowl odds than the Packers, who Vegas projects to once again win at least 10 games. They also have the easiest schedule next year, based on their opponents' 2015 records.
With Thompson and his cadre of personnel evaluators (many who have since advanced to larger roles with other teams) at the controls, the Packers have been very, very good at drafting.
Clearly, his method has worked and Thompson’s earned the right to continue to operate his way. But a "don’t fix it if it ain’t broke" attitude is only apt if the aspiration is double-digit victories and a loss in the playoffs, which has been the end result in six of the past seven seasons. If the sole accomplishment that matters is winning the Super Bowl, as head coach Mike McCarthy has repeated over the years – and given the finite window of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ transcendent prime – it’s time for Thompson to deviate from "best player available" and address his team's areas of glaring need in this draft.
If ever there was a year to (temporarily) forsake his philosophy and single-mindedly fill a couple of specific roster holes, incontrovertibly it is this one. Thompson has shown a recent willingness to adapt his previously reluctant approach to major free agency, signing Julius Peppers a few years ago and Jared Cook this offseason. Perhaps he is now ready to be more flexible in the draft, too.
Green Bay has selected a defensive player in the first round every year since 2011, when Thompson took offensive tackle Derek Sherrod. Of the Packers’ last 11 first-round picks, eight have been defenders. And while the defense has certainly improved from its historically submissive nadir in 2011 and some subsequent soft seasons – notably, the pass defense is much better – Green Bay still has run-stopping issues. There is a dearth of proven talent at inside linebacker and on the interior of the defensive line.
Over the last decade, the Packers have made a draft-day trade every year except in 2014. Thompson has shown willingness to trade back and stockpile picks, though only once has he dealt Green Bay out of the first round (he’s also moved up in the first round once). While there have been media reports rumoring potential trade discussions with, at least, the Broncos and Browns, we’re hoping he stays put at No. 27 on Thursday and takes an impact player at a needy position that can help the team win next season.
Having said all that, here is OnMilwaukee’s Packers guide to the 2016 NFL Draft:
Packers’ picks
Round 1: 27th overall
Round 2: 55th overall
Round 3: 88th overall
Round 4: 125th overall
Round 4: 131st overall (compensatory)
Round 4: 137th overall (compensatory)
Round 5: 163rd overall
Round 6: 200th overall
Round 7: 248th overall
History at No. 27
The last time the Packers held the 27th spot in the draft was 1996, when they selected offensive tackle John Michels, who started just 14 games in three seasons with Green Bay.
Recent history around No. 27
Under Thompson, the Packers have had the No. 26 pick twice and also the No. 28 selection. In 2009, Green Bay traded up to draft Clay Matthews 26th; the outside linebacker has played 101 games, been a six-time Pro Bowler and, of course, become one of the league’s best defenders. In 2012, the Packers picked Nick Perry at No. 28; he’s played 46 games and recorded 12.5 sacks at outside linebacker. And in 2013, with the 26th selection, Thompson chose Datone Jones, who’s played in 44 games and tallied eight sacks as a defensive end.
Biggest needs
The defense is better than it’s been in years, but there are still major holes at a couple of spots on that side of the ball. Inside linebacker has been an area of weakness, seemingly, for a decade. Matthews, who helped bolster the position last year, is moving back outside; Sam Barrington, who has some ability, is coming off a season-ending foot injury; Jake Ryan, a fourth-round pick last year, is intuitive but inconsistent; Nate Palmer, who somehow started 10 games in 2015, was released a few weeks ago.
The other place the Packers need help is at defensive tackle, where B.J. Raji’s sudden retirement last month left a humongous hole on the interior of the line. Raji was a playmaker, the recently re-signed Letroy Guion is a decent big body, but beyond that there are question marks: Josh Boyd is coming off injury, Mike Pennel is facing a four-game suspension and William Campbell was signed as a free agent but has yet to play in an NFL game. The Packers need a nose tackle that can contribute immediately.
Elsewhere, Green Bay is mostly set, at least as far as its starters, but tight end and offensive line are areas where the team could certainly stand to increase its depth later in the draft.
Who could be there at No. 27
At inside linebacker, the most appealing players that possibly could be available late in the first round are Alabama’s Reggie Ragland, LSU’s Deion Jones and Ohio State’s Darron Lee.
Experienced, productive and physical, the top prospect at inside ‘backer is Ragland, the 2015 SEC Defensive Player of the Year who’s a proficient run defender and open-field tackler. Jones was an outside linebacker in college, where he had 100 tackles and five sacks last year, but he’ll probably play inside in a 3-4 defense. Lee is lithe and very fast and should be a complete, three-down linebacker who can cover well and blitz. Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, a projected top-10 pick before suffering a serious leg injury, will almost certainly be available when the Packers pick in the first round and probably even in the second.
At defensive tackle, a deep position in this year’s draft, there are a few guys that might be there, though beauty is always in the eye of the beholder with linemen. Jarran Reed and A'Shawn Robinson, both from Alabama, and Louisville’s Sheldon Rankins are the best players with a realistic chance of still being around.
Reed, who had 56 tackles and a sack in 2015, has good size (6-foot-3, 307 pounds), is arguably the top run stuffer in the draft and could probably start for Green Bay in Week 1. His teammate and linemate, Robinson (6-4, 307), is extremely strong and athletic and has higher upside, but might need some time to develop. Rankins’ build (6-1, 299) and high motor call to mind Mike Daniels and he might be better as a defensive end in the Packers’ 3-4, but he’s a proven pass rusher who's played inside. Baylor’s Andrew Billings and Ole Miss’s Robert Nkemdiche would also be good fits at defensive tackle.
OnMilwaukee's take
Green Bay has a very strong team, especially with the expected return to form of key offensive players from injury and fatness. With Rodgers under center, Jordy Nelson back, Eddie Lacy presumably in shape and nearly the entire offensive line healthy, the offense should again be potent. The defense also looks pretty good, and its two biggest areas of need happen to be two of the deepest positions in the draft.
So please, Ted, show us your sizzle, depart from the "best player available" doctrine this year and just pick someone who can start at inside ‘backer or defensive tackle and improve this roster right away. Green Bay is a nearly complete team and so close to being a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Your masterpiece needs only slight touch-ups; make them.
OnMilwaukee's pick
Reggie Ragland could be the total package at a position where Green Bay hasn’t had a true impact player in years. Even if he’s not a Pro Bowler, if he’s just competent, above-average, he makes the team so much better. Remember: The Packers won the Super Bowl with A.J. Hawk organizing the defense at inside linebacker. Infuse the position with some pedigree and playmaking ability and the whole unit could return to 2010-caliber quality.
Priceless Thompson draft quote to remember (or forget)
"There are gut-wrenching times when you’re so close to getting what you think is the perfect player for your team, and then that player might get picked right in front of you or something. But oftentimes when that happens, as it turns out in the long run, you were better off with that happening in the first place. I do a lot of praying, and sometimes the good Lord, I think, looks down on us and helps us out."
Enjoy the Draft, everyone! Let us know who you think the Packers should pick – or what Thompson should do – in the comments.
Born in Milwaukee but a product of Shorewood High School (go ‘Hounds!) and Northwestern University (go ‘Cats!), Jimmy never knew the schoolboy bliss of cheering for a winning football, basketball or baseball team. So he ditched being a fan in order to cover sports professionally - occasionally objectively, always passionately. He's lived in Chicago, New York and Dallas, but now resides again in his beloved Brew City and is an ardent attacker of the notorious Milwaukee Inferiority Complex.
After interning at print publications like Birds and Blooms (official motto: "America's #1 backyard birding and gardening magazine!"), Sports Illustrated (unofficial motto: "Subscribe and save up to 90% off the cover price!") and The Dallas Morning News (a newspaper!), Jimmy worked for web outlets like CBSSports.com, where he was a Packers beat reporter, and FOX Sports Wisconsin, where he managed digital content. He's a proponent and frequent user of em dashes, parenthetical asides, descriptive appositives and, really, anything that makes his sentences longer and more needlessly complex.
Jimmy appreciates references to late '90s Brewers and Bucks players and is the curator of the unofficial John Jaha Hall of Fame. He also enjoys running, biking and soccer, but isn't too annoying about them. He writes about sports - both mainstream and unconventional - and non-sports, including history, music, food, art and even golf (just kidding!), and welcomes reader suggestions for off-the-beaten-path story ideas.