By Dave Roloff Published Jan 10, 2004 at 5:42 AM

Scoring in the NBA is at an all-time low, and the game is getting very difficult to watch. Twenty years ago if you didn't have 60 points by halftime, you were probably being taken to the woodshed. Now every night there is a team the only scores in the 60s for an entire game. A combined 130 points is not worth the price of an NBA ticket-not when you can see high school teams accomplish the same feat in a fraction of the time.

There are many reasons why the game has slowed down to a halt and scores are so low. Changes need to be made to the game before it declines to the point where LeBron James, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird combined can't save it. It's worth saving.

To set the stage, five statistical categories need to be examined: points per game, field goal percentage, field goals attempted, free throws attempted and three point baskets made. Analyzing these stats, highlighting the factors led to them and finding solutions to the problems is the job I've taken on this week.

The table below shows the numbers (rounded to the last place) for the last 30 years.

 

PPG

Pts

FGM

FGA

FGP

FTM

FTA

FTP

3PM

2002-03

95

7,797

2,929

6,624

44.2%

1,518

2,004

75.8%

421

1997-98

96

7,837

2,944

6,536

45.1%

1,588

2,155

73.7%

360

1994-95

101

8,315

3,115

6,682

46.6%

1,635

2,220

73.7%

450

1989-90

107

8,773

3,404

7,146

47.7%

1,786

2,338

76.3%

179

1984-85

111

9,089

3,588

7,306

49.1%

1,839

2,408

76.3%

73

1979-80

109

8,965

3,579

7,433

48.2%

1,744

2,282

76.4%

64

1978-79

110

9,048

3,651

7,522

48.5%

1,747

2,321

75.3%

0

1973-74

106

8,671

3,533

7,697

45.9%

1,606

2,082

77.1%

0

Analysis
There was a spike in threes taken and made in the mid-nineties because, for some unknown reason, the line was moved in to 21 feet. This made heroes out of the likes of Oliver Miller and Matt Bullard. Not one of the leagues better ideas. There is distinct correlation between threes made and points scored per game.

Even in '77-'78 and '73-'74, when there wasn't even a three-point line, teams averaged over 105 points per game. There wasn't one team even close to scoring 105 points per game last year. In 1984, the scoring average was 111 points per game and each team only averaged 72.65 three-point shots per year. There are a couple teams now that make that many in a month.

While, by definition, you get three points for making a three pointer, the overall percentage of made shots plummet. That's clearly reflected by the declining shooting percentage with the corresponding rising number of threes taken. Not only are there more misses, but more empty trips where better shots could have been made. It is a double-edged sword for scoring average.

There has also been a sharp and constant decline in the number of shots taken over the years and, of those being taken, more are jump shots. More jump shots have directly led to a steady decline in free throws taken. The penalty rule has changed over the years, but the dearth of players willing to take it to the hole and run transition leads to fewer points.

So what has led to all of this?

Reasons
Statistics rarely tell the entire story. There have been many changes in the game you can't see without watching the game. That has led to different numbers.

1. Age: Without question, the top reason for terrible offense in the game today is the average age of the players. Players are getting younger and younger and the league is depending on them for their product. Not many 20-year-old players are going to be consistent shooters.

These kids come into the league out of high school or maybe after one year of college and don't immediately get the need minutes to hone their game. Playing four years of college hasn't hurt anyone's game, but I don't blame any of these guys for taking the money. That is a different conversation.

Regardless, these kids aren't ready to be good basketball players. Kids today don't ooh and ahh over a jump shooter, they want to see dunking and fancy dribbling. In fact if you have ever seen the And 1 Streetball series, the object of the game isn't even to score the most points. The object is to make your opponent look bad and then dance. You won't find many knockdown shooters in those games.

2. Athleticism: Athletes have gotten bigger and stronger, which has made the court much smaller. There is no question that players that are small forwards and shooting guards are the size of Bill Russell. This doesn't diminish Russell's greatness but he would be of average size and athletic ability in today's NBA.

Basketball is game that offers more athletic ability than any other sport in the world. The beauty of watching a 6'10" Tracy McGrady handle the ball like a point guard, and have the range to shoot from anywhere and over anyone, is a beautiful thing to watch.

Back in the glory days of the NBA, McGrady would have been a dominant center. Now players of his size dominate the game but their advancement in athleticism has made them guards and small forwards. In essence, the development and advance of the traditional NBA athletes is killing the game.

Open shot are less open, open lanes close more quickly and every shot is challenged-not only by shot-blocking centers but by everyone on the court.

3. Defense: Defense is no longer a four-letter word in the NBA. This has been detrimental to the league but some coaches realize that they can't match-up with talent and slow the ball down and play very tight defense. Mike Fratello made this very popular when he had success with an awful Cavaliers team in the late nineties.

4. Officiating and rule changes: Ever since the Bad Boy Pistons and Pat Riley's Knicks, tackling has become part of playing defense. The refs have tried to cut down on the clutching and grabbing but, when it some down to crunch time, you can just about murder someone and get away with it. (With all due respect to the Pistons, they did average 107 points per game.)

Not all rules changes have been bad, but most of them have been detrimental to scoring, even though they tried to open the game up.

Dismantling the illegal defense rule is the most mind-boggling. You needed an MBA to understand the rule to its full extent, but it eliminated sagging defenses and switches off of the ball. The rule was put into place to try and spur more team basketball, because every possession has turned into a two-man game instead of free-flowing offense.

It was a good idea, but watching a team pass the ball around the perimeter against a zone, while the best players on the floor are being double-teamed, is not what is fantastic about this game. The fifth players on each team shouldn't be the ones deciding the game.

One of the rules changes that has been successful has been the charge circle. The veteran referees always had their own pseudo charge circle but now the circle takes away the ambiguity from the coward refs. The circle encourages driving to the basket but the results have been much less that expected.

5. Coaching styles: This may be the most important reason. It is understood that coaches that have the talented teams have to coach much less, but the World Champion Spurs call a play every time down court. Do you think Pat Riley called a play to get it to Kareem? He knew Magic was smart enough to realize that was how they were going to win.

Coaches like Jeff Van Gundy should be banned from the game. I never thought anyone could harness a talent like Steve Francis. Not only has he harnessed it, he killed it. There is no way a team with that much firepower should be held in the 60s and average in the mid-80s. It is all in the name of defense, control ... and a .500 record.

Coaches today make tons of money and feel the need to call a play every trip down the court instead of letting athletes take over the game. Fewer and tougher shots equal less makes, less points, less flow and no entertainment.

Have you ever been disappointed watching a Mavericks game? Yes, they have lots of talent but Don Nelson lets them play. This is the way the game is supposed to be played. If you are open - shoot the ball. Get the ball to the open guys and work to get open.

Solutions
1. The three point line: Get rid of it until the final two minutes of the game. The only need for the line is to give a team a chance to tie the game at the end of the game. This will force teams to get better shots and encourage penetration.

2. League contraction: There are a lot of guys that are collecting a paycheck that can't play. There are not enough teams that have three or four good scorers. This is one of the reasons for the slower play. Eighty percent of the league isn't allowed to shoot the ball when they are open. A solid player like Danny Ainge used to be the 10th best player on the court.

3. League age limit: A player like LeBron comes along once or twice a century, so we will not have to worry about handcuffing another talent like that. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and McGrady all struggled in their first couple of years. Honing their game in college would not hurt and it would encourage the drafting of better basketball players instead of thoroughbred 18-year-old kids.

4. Rule changes: Lowering the penalty to three fouls a half and five fouls per player would encourage less grabbing and overall defense. Also eliminate the zone defense. Pick and role and isolation basketball is much better than what we are watching today. Let the stars be stars, not well-guarded statues. This would cause a slower game but the players would grow accustomed. Otherwise it will be a parade to the line and to the bench.

Other ideas could work too, such as widening the court or making the basket larger-but we needed to start with something more realistic. The point is that the game needs change because it is boring. Basketball is beautiful when played with fluidity. It is ugly when broken down to a grind-it-out half court game. Less three point shots, less grabbing and more running are cosmetic solutions. Changing coach's mindsets is what needs to happen internally.

There are far too many fine basketball players in the world to have current scoring levels. King James can't save it alone. We need to help. If you have any ideas of your own, please post them. I am tired of watching games in the 70s, and I am tired of watching tapes of the 1984 Finals in order to see good basketball.

Dave was born and raised on the south side of Milwaukee. He is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh where he graduated in Business while playing four years of football. He is a sports junkie who, instead of therapy, just watches the Bucks and the Brewers. Dave is a season ticket holder for the Brewers, Bucks and Packers, as well as a football coach at Greendale High School. Dave still likes to think he still can play baseball but has moved on to the more pedestrian sports of bowling and golf. Dave is a Pisces and it depends on whom he is walking with to determine whether he likes long walks on the beach. Dave writes with an encyclopedic knowledge and a sarcastic flare. Mainly to insure his sanity.