{image1} Now that everyone has had a few days to bask in UW-Milwaukee's improbable run to the Sweet 16, our gaze can shift to the biggest potential upset of them all: No. 1 Illinois.
Are Panthers fans foolish to even dream about knocking off the Illini, a team that came within five seconds of a perfect regular season and has won its ensuing five post-season games with relative ease? Foolish, perhaps; moronic, no. An upset is possible.
Last week in this space, I doubted UWM's ability to beat Alabama, but I certainly didn't discount it. But now that the bad vibes from the narrow Horizon League championship escape have been buried by last week's victories, anything seems possible for Bruce Pearl's Panthers. Probable, no; possible, yes.
Believe it or not, UWM provides Illinois with match-up problems. And in March, match-up problems oftentimes end terrific seasons.
Now, of course, the Illini also present a host of match-up problems for UWM -- but that is a given. We're here to discuss how the Panthers could possibly spring an upset, not how Illinois is supposed to avoid one.
Stay Hot
How did UWM get here? By playing offense the way they are capable, which is a beautiful thing to watch. In scoring 83 points against Alabama and Boston College, the Panthers shredded defenses that allowed 64.5 and 63.8 points during the season, respectively. They did it by getting major scoring contributions from Ed McCants (21, 18) Joah Tucker (21, 23) and Adrian Tigert (10, 16; combined 11-for-11 shooting) in both games.
More importantly, the Panthers were on fire from three-point land, hitting 12-of-21 against Alabama and 11-of-24 against BC. This hot shooting paved the way for Tucker's post contributions in the second half of each game. It was as well rounded of an attack as Pearl could have asked for.
Unfortunately, three-point shooting is a fickle beast. If the bombs start clanging iron early, UWM can go cold just as surely as they've been hot. The good news in this regard is that Illinois, a great defensive team (60.1 points allowed during the season) capable of locking down the opposition for halves at a time, does not defend the three-point line very well. Opponents hit 36.6 percent of their three-pointers against the Illini, a mark better than only Penn State and Purdue in the Big Ten. And you'll recall that Matt Sylvester's game-winner ruined Illinois' perfect season in Columbus.
Limit Penetration
Assuming you're both a college hoops fan and literate, you've read about UI's three-guard rotation: Dee Brown, Deron Williams and Luther Head. The trio does the bulk of Illinois' scoring, averaging 41 ppg (all five Illini starters average double-figures however; nice balance).
Let's assume the Illini guards will continue to score their points. It will be more important to limit their penetration. Forward James Augustine had huge games against UW in the Big Ten championship and Nevada on Sunday by finding open space while one of the guards worked a dribble-drive. This tactic often leads to highlight-reel (and uncontested) dunks for Augustine.
Luckily, UWM has three quick on-the-ball defenders in Chris Hill, Boo Davis and McCants. It's imperative that they keep the Illini's three-headed monster out of the lane, limiting the resulting double-teams that lead to easy baskets for the Illini's big men.
Create Turnovers
Both Alabama and BC were flustered to no end by UWM's press. At first blush, UI and its great ball-handlers aren't as likely to be.
Then again, neither were the Tide or the Eagles; Alabama had 19 turnovers despite averaging just 12.6 on the year, and BC committed 22 despite averaging 12.9.
Illinois is even stingier, averaging just 11.1 turnovers a game. In fact, they average a stunning 1.67 assists per turnover. Wisconsin, another notoriously efficient team with the basketball, averages just 1.14 assists per turnover by comparison.
The Illini aren't likely to fold under the Sweet 16 spotlight pressure and commit 20 or more turnovers. But they did cough it up 16 times against Nevada Sunday, a team that doesn't create nearly as much defensive pressure as UWM.
OK, you say, this all sounds good in theory, but give me some numbers.
First, UWM will need to hit at least 45 percent of its shots, including 10 or more from outside. That's a tall order against a team that limited its first two tourney foes to 40 and 37 percent shooting. At less than 45 percent, they'll need a very slow night from a very good Illinois offense.
Second, you'll know the Panthers are limiting penetration if Augustine scores 12 or fewer points (and if fellow forward Roger Powell doesn't compensate by scoring 15+). Most of the big man's hoops are on open slams or put-backs derived from dribble penetration.
Finally, Illinois will need to commit at least 15 turnovers. And at the same time, UWM will have to limit its own miscues -- let's say 10 or fewer.
It's a tall order. But advancing to a regional final always is.
Sports shots columnist Tim Gutowski was born in a hospital in West Allis and his sporting heart never really left. He grew up in a tiny town 30 miles west of the city named Genesee and was in attendance at County Stadium the day the Brewers clinched the 1981 second-half AL East crown. I bet you can't say that.
Though Tim moved away from Wisconsin (to Iowa and eventually the suburbs of Chicago) as a 10-year-old, he eventually found his way back to Milwaukee. He remembers fondly the pre-Web days of listenting to static-filled Brewers games on AM 620 and crying after repeated Bears' victories over the Packers.
