Since trying to uncover information about an NFL team's Draft plans is akin to getting a straight answer on war aims from Donald Rumsfeld, predicting where the Packers will go with the 29th pick of the 2003 NFL Draft Saturday is closer to theory than science.
However, we can make educated guesses about where the Packers will turn with their late first-round pick based on a few known facts:
- With speculation swirling over Brett Favre's eventual retirement, Mike Sherman is in the market for an heir apparent to No. 4. The Draft is top-heavy with quarterbacks.
- Linebackers are a key defensive weakness. Nail Diggs re-signed and Hannibal Navies was added, but Hardy Nickerson and Nate Wayne are gone.
- Injuries and age have left the offensive line in a precarious position. There is some first-round depth at tackle which the Packers could fall back on if the QB or LB of their choosing is not available.
- Vonnie Holliday's departure and Gilbert Brown's possible one leave the defensive line in need of help, too.
Immediately after the season, drafting a quarterback was the hot topic in Green Bay. Ron Wolf expounded on the virtue of Florida's Rex Grossman, and other quality players like Kyle Boller (Cal), Chris Simms (Texas) and Dave Ragone (Louisville) figured to be available at 29.
Now, it's a different story. Boller's stock, in particular, has jumped to top 10 territory. Grossman is being hyped by Draft god Mel Kiper, Jr. as the potential steal of the first round, and it looks like both will go before Green Bay is on the clock. Pittsburgh, selecting at 27, is reported to be particularly enamored of Grossman.
Was the Wolf story a bit of Packer gamesmanship to throw the scent off the guy they really wanted? After all, Grossman does not have a big arm, one of Favre's primary strengths. And if so, who was that guy? A month ago, the rifle-armed Boller looked like hed be available late in the first round, at which point Green Bay could swing a deal into the early 20s to nab him. Now, he may possibly go in the first 10 or 15 picks.
Simms and Ragone are both reach picks at 29 -- each will supposedly last until the early second round. Each is also lefty, which may further dissuade Green Bay from reaching. Boston College's Brian St. Pierre is another popular riser who could still be around when the Packers next select at No. 94 in the third round.
Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell would feel a lot better if either Boss Bailey (Georgia) or E.J. Henderson (Maryland) was still on the board at 29. Bailey is an undersized outside LB with speed to burn. But he will likely be gone when the Packers select, and Green Bay has more need for Henderson's range of skills. The Bednarik (best defensive player) and Butkus (best linebacker) award winner plays in the middle and stacks people up, something the Packers simply don't do well as a unit. He could be starting in the middle immediately, and for a long time to come.
Other backers of note are Kansas State's Terry Pierce, an inside guy with better speed than Henderson, and Oregon State's Nick Barnett, who is probably too much of a safety/OLB hybrid for the Packers to take at 29. Overall, the linebacking class is considered weak, but Henderson suits the Pack's needs if he slips past interested suitor New Orleans (the Saints have both the 17th and 18th picks).
The recent fallout with free agent nose tackle Jermaine Haley and Holliday's signing with Kansas City could signal the Packers desire to select a defensive lineman at 29.
Three guys who figure to be available among a deep group are Ohio State's Kenny Peterson, Miami's William Joseph and Oklahoma State's Kevin Williams. Peterson is an athletic end whose pass-rushing resembles Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila's. Joseph and Williams are tackles, a spot that could be a need if the Pack believes Brown is not returning. Joseph isn't considered to be a hard worker, but he is 6-5 and capable of dominating bursts. Williams is quick and diligent and could fit in well to the Pack's tackle rotation.
Offensive line picks in the first round aren't always sexy, but they are often necessary. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Chad Clifton, the team's transaction line acquisition of C-G David Brandt last month and its proven ability to find late-round sleepers suggests the Packers don't go OL in the first round.
However, Notre Dame center Jeff Faine or tackles Wayne Hunter (Hawaii), George Foster and Jon Stinchcomb (both Georgia) are all possibilities if Sherman & Co. decide to take a blocker.
Of course, the Packers could always trade up or down from 29, completely blowing up any mock draft. But looking at the team's backup QB situation (Craig Nall, Zak Kustok, Doug Pederson), the Packers seemingly have to draft a QB in the first round at some point -- maybe this is the year. If so, trading up for Boller or nabbing Ragone late in the first round may be their play. Otherwise, Henderson would be a very solid Plan B.
Sports shots columnist Tim Gutowski was born in a hospital in West Allis and his sporting heart never really left. He grew up in a tiny town 30 miles west of the city named Genesee and was in attendance at County Stadium the day the Brewers clinched the 1981 second-half AL East crown. I bet you can't say that.
Though Tim moved away from Wisconsin (to Iowa and eventually the suburbs of Chicago) as a 10-year-old, he eventually found his way back to Milwaukee. He remembers fondly the pre-Web days of listenting to static-filled Brewers games on AM 620 and crying after repeated Bears' victories over the Packers.
