Three months ago, I was feeling very positive about the Brewers chances for success in 2006. So good, in fact, that the playoffs seemed realistic and a possible darkhorse run at the National League Central title wasn't out of the question -- at least not to me.
Today, I fear that I was afflicted with what baseball fans everywhere fall prey to annually just before Opening Day: spring fever. In the bright light of early June, even a repeat of last year's .500 breakthrough appears doubtful at Miller Park.
Injuries, along with the worst pitching and defense in the National League, have drained the season of nearly all its early enthusiasm. In fact, fans and writers are already contemplating the trading deadline -- a sure sign of a season gone awry.
Despite it all, there are still nearly 100 games left to play, and I am trying to recall the two scenarios that I envisioned for the "new and improved" '06 Brewers way back in March. I figured the Crew would either take the National League by storm and open up a surprising lead in the division (what Detroit is currently doing in the American League), or they'd piddle around .500 until July and then put a wild-card run together in the second half (what Cleveland and Oakland did last year in the American League).
The train has left the station on the first scenario. Hopes were buoyed by the team's 5-0 start to the season, but the Brewers have gone just 25-34 since, a .423 winning percentage. Injuries are partially to blame, but the team's response to those injuries has been less than impressive. Blowout defeats, a revolving door of minor-league pitchers, embarrassing defense and the continuing strikeout parade offensively cannot be blamed entirely on injuries to Ben Sheets, Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling.
Instead, we should all question why we were so enamored of a pitching staff that included Ben Sheets, Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling in the first place -- myself chief among the guilty. Sheets has never won more than 12 games in a season and has had trouble staying healthy over the last year, Ohka is a back-of-the-rotation guy, and Helling is in the twilight of a generally average career.
So, is the second scenario still possible? Can the Brewers reverse their recent fortunes after the All-Star break?
In a word, it's doubtful. In two words, it's extremely doubtful.
Why not? First of all, the Brewers simply do not have the horses, a fact that becomes more clear with every double-digit scoring night by the opposition. Everyone wants to point out that Houston was 14-29 last year and ended up in the World Series, but I can give you three reasons that won't happen to the Brewers: Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. The Brewers' best pitcher is Chris Capuano; he may equal Pettitte's success eventually, but he won't singlehandedly spearhead a second-half surge. Unless Sheets returns and dominates in the second half, the Brewers will not make a serious playoff push.
Secondly, the Brewers are historically a poor second-half team. Or are they? Below are the team's second-half and overall records, including winning percentage. Other than the cataclysmic '04 collapse, which skews the second-half total, the Brewers have been a better second-half than first-half team this decade:
Season Second Half Win Pct. Overall Win Pct.
2000 36-38 .486 73-89 .451
2001 26-50 .342 68-94 .420
2002 33-51 .393 56-106 .346
2003 31-38 .449 68-94 .420
2004 22-53 .293 67-94 .416
2005 39-35 .527 81-81 .500
Overall 187-265 .414 413-558 .425
But the yearly numbers do not portend an extreme deviation from the team's first-half record, unless it's a negative one. Excepting 2001 and 2004, the Brewers played themselves out of contention by early July and then played slightly better baseball over the second half -- which amounts to nothing. So the likelihood is this: if the Brewers do level off and reach the break within a game or two of .500 (one way or the other), they'll probably finish five or six games within .500 (one way or the other); that translates to 78-84 wins, far short of realistic playoff chances.
Obviously, the Brewers face very real problems on the playing field, pitching and defense being the primary ones. But the front office and owner Mark Attanasio are also dealing with a public relations component to the season that could affect what they do over the next few months. Having sold the team as a playoff contender during the offseason, it will be difficult for Attanasio, Doug Melvin and Ned Yost to admit the '06 Brewers are going nowhere, even if it becomes increasingly likely that they are. In other words, they'll tend to stick to the idea that the team is a contender and not make any future-based trades near the July deadline.
Take the debate over trading Carlos Lee: Dealing him for pitching might be the best move the team can make for 2007 and 2008, but it'll spur cries of "Here we go again!" from a very tired and beat-down fan base. With perhaps another year or two of non-playoff years on the horizon, Attanasio has to consider short-term public sentiment even while he's trying to do the right thing by the franchise long-term.
And as far as Geoff Jenkins goes, as Andrew Wagner pointed out in his most recent column, you can't trade nothing for something. Jenkins is worth little on the open market at the moment (the Cubs just picked up Phil Nevin, a comparable player, for the not-so-steep price of Jerry Hairston, Jr.).
The biggest obstacle Yost and the Brewers face, however, is not trading-deadline decisions or injury problems -- it's overcoming a culture of losing. The tendency to turn good things into bad and to allow problems to fester has doomed Milwaukee since 1992. When the team cracks that physical and physchological nut, those spring expectations may finally be rewarded. I won't say yet that it can't happen this year, but I will say this: March seems like an awfully long time ago.
Today, I fear that I was afflicted with what baseball fans everywhere fall prey to annually just before Opening Day: spring fever. In the bright light of early June, even a repeat of last year's .500 breakthrough appears doubtful at Miller Park.
Injuries, along with the worst pitching and defense in the National League, have drained the season of nearly all its early enthusiasm. In fact, fans and writers are already contemplating the trading deadline -- a sure sign of a season gone awry.
Despite it all, there are still nearly 100 games left to play, and I am trying to recall the two scenarios that I envisioned for the "new and improved" '06 Brewers way back in March. I figured the Crew would either take the National League by storm and open up a surprising lead in the division (what Detroit is currently doing in the American League), or they'd piddle around .500 until July and then put a wild-card run together in the second half (what Cleveland and Oakland did last year in the American League).
The train has left the station on the first scenario. Hopes were buoyed by the team's 5-0 start to the season, but the Brewers have gone just 25-34 since, a .423 winning percentage. Injuries are partially to blame, but the team's response to those injuries has been less than impressive. Blowout defeats, a revolving door of minor-league pitchers, embarrassing defense and the continuing strikeout parade offensively cannot be blamed entirely on injuries to Ben Sheets, Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling.
Instead, we should all question why we were so enamored of a pitching staff that included Ben Sheets, Tomo Ohka and Rick Helling in the first place -- myself chief among the guilty. Sheets has never won more than 12 games in a season and has had trouble staying healthy over the last year, Ohka is a back-of-the-rotation guy, and Helling is in the twilight of a generally average career.
So, is the second scenario still possible? Can the Brewers reverse their recent fortunes after the All-Star break?
In a word, it's doubtful. In two words, it's extremely doubtful.
Why not? First of all, the Brewers simply do not have the horses, a fact that becomes more clear with every double-digit scoring night by the opposition. Everyone wants to point out that Houston was 14-29 last year and ended up in the World Series, but I can give you three reasons that won't happen to the Brewers: Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. The Brewers' best pitcher is Chris Capuano; he may equal Pettitte's success eventually, but he won't singlehandedly spearhead a second-half surge. Unless Sheets returns and dominates in the second half, the Brewers will not make a serious playoff push.
Secondly, the Brewers are historically a poor second-half team. Or are they? Below are the team's second-half and overall records, including winning percentage. Other than the cataclysmic '04 collapse, which skews the second-half total, the Brewers have been a better second-half than first-half team this decade:
Season Second Half Win Pct. Overall Win Pct.
2000 36-38 .486 73-89 .451
2001 26-50 .342 68-94 .420
2002 33-51 .393 56-106 .346
2003 31-38 .449 68-94 .420
2004 22-53 .293 67-94 .416
2005 39-35 .527 81-81 .500
Overall 187-265 .414 413-558 .425
But the yearly numbers do not portend an extreme deviation from the team's first-half record, unless it's a negative one. Excepting 2001 and 2004, the Brewers played themselves out of contention by early July and then played slightly better baseball over the second half -- which amounts to nothing. So the likelihood is this: if the Brewers do level off and reach the break within a game or two of .500 (one way or the other), they'll probably finish five or six games within .500 (one way or the other); that translates to 78-84 wins, far short of realistic playoff chances.
Obviously, the Brewers face very real problems on the playing field, pitching and defense being the primary ones. But the front office and owner Mark Attanasio are also dealing with a public relations component to the season that could affect what they do over the next few months. Having sold the team as a playoff contender during the offseason, it will be difficult for Attanasio, Doug Melvin and Ned Yost to admit the '06 Brewers are going nowhere, even if it becomes increasingly likely that they are. In other words, they'll tend to stick to the idea that the team is a contender and not make any future-based trades near the July deadline.
Take the debate over trading Carlos Lee: Dealing him for pitching might be the best move the team can make for 2007 and 2008, but it'll spur cries of "Here we go again!" from a very tired and beat-down fan base. With perhaps another year or two of non-playoff years on the horizon, Attanasio has to consider short-term public sentiment even while he's trying to do the right thing by the franchise long-term.
And as far as Geoff Jenkins goes, as Andrew Wagner pointed out in his most recent column, you can't trade nothing for something. Jenkins is worth little on the open market at the moment (the Cubs just picked up Phil Nevin, a comparable player, for the not-so-steep price of Jerry Hairston, Jr.).
The biggest obstacle Yost and the Brewers face, however, is not trading-deadline decisions or injury problems -- it's overcoming a culture of losing. The tendency to turn good things into bad and to allow problems to fester has doomed Milwaukee since 1992. When the team cracks that physical and physchological nut, those spring expectations may finally be rewarded. I won't say yet that it can't happen this year, but I will say this: March seems like an awfully long time ago.
Sports shots columnist Tim Gutowski was born in a hospital in West Allis and his sporting heart never really left. He grew up in a tiny town 30 miles west of the city named Genesee and was in attendance at County Stadium the day the Brewers clinched the 1981 second-half AL East crown. I bet you can't say that.
Though Tim moved away from Wisconsin (to Iowa and eventually the suburbs of Chicago) as a 10-year-old, he eventually found his way back to Milwaukee. He remembers fondly the pre-Web days of listenting to static-filled Brewers games on AM 620 and crying after repeated Bears' victories over the Packers.
