{image1}Despite the Brewers' failure to earn that elusive 82nd victory over the weekend in Pittsburgh, 2005 was still a breakthrough season for Ned Yost's club. The team improved by 14 wins over its 2004 mark, and Milwaukeeans are legitimately excited about the Brewers future for the first time in a dozen years.
The Crew's emergence mirrors that of two noteworthy teams and managers. Cleveland, in its second year under manager Eric Wedge, won just 80 games last year before reaching 93 and nearly making the American League playoffs this season (they won 68 in 2003, the same total Milwaukee registered in 2004).
Secondly, Yost's mentor, Bobby Cox, also won 81 games in his third season as manager of the Braves, which his protégé did in this, his third season in Milwaukee. After a fourth year in Atlanta, Cox did a four-year stint in Toronto (winning one division championship) before embarking on his second, extraordinarily successful run in Georgia. Cox and the Braves have now registered 14 straight N.L. East titles.
All of this fails to guarantee a playoff or winning season in 2006, however. Though owner Mark Attanasio is ready to expand the payroll again, a step backwards isn't out of the question. But if the Brewers can have another productive off-season this year, there's no reason to believe they won't win 90 games. Here are a couple things to watch for this winter.
Outfield Shuffle?
Will the productive trio of Carlos Lee (114 RBI), Brady Clark (.306, 94 runs) and Geoff Jenkins (.292, 86 RBI) return intact? Many fans and writers (including this one) were begging for Jenkins to be dealt before his second-half turnaround. His second-half play quieted the catcalls but increased his trade value. Doug Melvin probably isn't motivated to deal him, but Jenkins could be packaged for a third baseman or top-line starter if the right deal comes together. The only other question is Clark, who should eventually give way to Dave Kryznel or Corey Hart in center. But his consistent and terrific season (and low salary) make him the odds-on opening day starter, with Kryznel or Hart battling for a fourth outfield spot in spring training.
Starting Third Baseman
Retro fan favorite Jeff Cirillo did a nice job in spot duty, but third base was the team's weakest everyday position. Will Bill Hall become the regular there in 2006 after a good year at the plate (.291, 17 HR, 62 RBI)? That's a possibility, but Hall's versatility is a valued commodity for Yost. A veteran third baseman in the mold of Mike Lowell or Melvin Mora would be nice, but Hall's numbers stack up pretty well with any affordable option. Instead, look for a veteran replacement for Russell Branyan and/or Cirillo to be added to split time with Hall. Eventually, the team hopes this is 2005 draftee Ryan Braun's slot.
Lyle or Prince?
The question on everyone's lips is what to do about Lyle Overbay. Prior to Attanasio's comments in Pittsburgh this weekend, most figured Overbay was headed somewhere for somebody this winter. But the owner intimated otherwise, pointing out that Overbay is both affordable and good. If they both weren't lefties, a platoon situation with the still young Prince Fielder would make sense. But that doesn't seem likely, and Overbay is really an everyday player. All things still point to Overbay being somewhere else next year, so perhaps Attanasio was just reminding suitors that the Brewers won't be giving him away in a possible deal.
Starting Staff
There are no longer any questions about Doug Davis and Chris Capuano; both are going to be starters in Milwaukee until they show they're unworthy. And even Rick Helling has to be considered for a spot out of training camp next year, as well as rookie reliever Dana Eveland, who struggled down the stretch. Will Tomo Okha return? He went 7-6 as a Brewer and is eligible for arbitration this winter. I'd expect Melvin to try to pick up a third or fourth starter via free agency or trade (probably for Overbay) while sliding Ohka into the fifth spot. Free agent possibilities include Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd and Scott Elarton. A pickup would allow Helling (also a free agent), Eveland or Gary Glover to spot start, in addition to whatever other non-roster players may be added. It would appear as though Victor Santos' days as a Brewer are numbered.
Pen Established?
Thanks to the incredible emergence of Derrick Turnbow, the bullpen could be a formidable group with little tweaking in 2006. Turnbow, Jose Capellan, Matt Wise and probably Justin Lehr should earn spots out of camp. Jorge de la Rosa, ex-closer Mike Adams and 2004 workhorse Jeff Bennett also figure to contribute. The Brewers have always built the pen from waivers and within, and that shouldn't change with a strong nucleus returning.
In all, don't look for a major Carlos Lee-type transaction this winter. Instead, I'd expect Melvin to search for specific, mid-range help: another starter, a veteran infielder, and perhaps another catcher to challenge Chad Moeller for his role. The Brewers liked what they saw from their prospects in 2005, and they'll continue to let them show the way in 2006.
Sports shots columnist Tim Gutowski was born in a hospital in West Allis and his sporting heart never really left. He grew up in a tiny town 30 miles west of the city named Genesee and was in attendance at County Stadium the day the Brewers clinched the 1981 second-half AL East crown. I bet you can't say that.
Though Tim moved away from Wisconsin (to Iowa and eventually the suburbs of Chicago) as a 10-year-old, he eventually found his way back to Milwaukee. He remembers fondly the pre-Web days of listenting to static-filled Brewers games on AM 620 and crying after repeated Bears' victories over the Packers.