Besides the slow professional death of three-time NFL MVP Brett Favre, the most agonizing thing about watching the 2005 Green Bay Packers has been its anemic running game.
Yes, popular Nigerian rookie Samkon Gado has been an oasis, but its only fitting that his season was cut short in Monday's loss, a defeat that literally defies comprehension considering the opponent, its quarterback, and the Packers legacy under Favre.
Despite Gado's solid performance (582 yards, 6 TDs, 4.1 ypc) since emerging near midseason, the Packers have managed just 87.1 yards rushing per game this year -- more than 30 yards fewer than last year's total of 117.5 (including playoffs). What's worse, it's just over half of 2003's total of 146.4 ypg (also including playoffs), a year in which the Packers nearly rode a dominating running game to the cusp of the Super Bowl.
As Favre has aged, his effectiveness has been reliant on a good rushing attack. It was the same with John Elway near the end of his career -- No. 7 was at his best when Terrell Davis was at his. When Ahman Green ran for 1.883 yards and 5.3 ypc in 2003, Favre threw for 32 TDs. This year, he's thrown 19 against 24 interceptions.
Now, surely Favre's skills have atrophied, but it's also no coincidence that the Packers are just 6-15 when rushing for less than 100 yards over the last three years, including 1-7 this season. In 2003, the Packers were 8-3 when reaching 150 yards rushing and were 5-1 in those games in 2004. This year, they've done it just once -- a 16-13 victory over the Lions earlier this month.
But I'm guessing you knew the team couldn't run the football. The real question is what are the Packers going to do about it next year.
Green Bay will first need to address its situation with Green, Najeh Davenport and Gado. Green's thigh injury could presage bad things for his career, but he'll still be only 29 next year and had five consecutive 1,100-yard seasons before the injury. Twenty-nine may be old for a running back, but Curtis Martin ran for 1,697 yards last year at 31.
Davenport, once a promising would-be starter, is just as questionable. He'll be 27 next year and has never gotten starter's carries for a full season. He averaged over 5 ypc in 2003 and 2004, but much of that success was in combination with Green while running behind an established offensive line. He's also battled injury problems throughout his career.
Neither Green nor Davenport is signed for next year. And one thing is certain -- they won't both be back. Ted Thompson's unemotional work this year would seem to suggest neither will be.
What about Gado? He went from a curious, fumbling, flash-in-the-pan to someone that Ron Wolf was heaping praise on earlier this week. From the notoriously harsh Wolf, a man who referred to the Packers Super Bowl teams as nothing more than "a fart in the wind" after the SB XXXII loss to Denver, that's saying something. Gado will be back and should compete for the starter's job in 2006, unless Reggie Bush is in the fold, which he likely won't be.
Speaking of the draft, is any help imminent there? Let's avoid a guessing game about the probability of the Packers landing the No. 1 pick and work from the assumption that Bush will not end up in Green Bay. If the Packers want to take a back, Memphis star DeAngelo Williams is a legitimate top five pick. They could also trade down and try to nab Bush's USC teammate (if he also declares early) LenDale White or Minnesota's Laurence Maroney.
Williams has star potential. He's 5-10, 217 and has great speed, piling up over 6 ypc in three of his four NCAA seasons (and 5.9 in the other). And he's racked up 52 rushing TDs in his career.
If Bush eludes the Packers and they don't want to go for Williams in the first few picks, they could also elect to shore up what has turned into a very average offensive line. Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a top-five talent at offensive tackle, a guy the Packers could probably make room for even though Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are the two best players on the line. Could Clifton move to right tackle with Tauscher shifting to a guard slot?
Miami's Eric Winston and Auburn's Marcus McNeill are also first-round tackles, but neither would be a worthwhile pick in the top five.
Free agency? Well, the Packers are going to have a lot of cap room, and there are some very attractive backs on the market. Who? How about Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis? But James and Alexander figure to command Oprah-like cash, and Lewis has had injury problems -- he won't be cheap, either. If Thompson's first year as GM is any indication, he'll probably elect to give Gado a closer look and build through the draft.
Is there a dream scenario out there? Let's say the Packers stumble into the No. 1 pick and nab Bush. Consider their RB problems solved. That would leave plenty of cash to chase after offensive line help, and Seattle guard Steve Hutchinson will be available. Hutchinson is merely the best player on perhaps the best line in football, a unit that has helped turn Alexander into an NFL superstar. And in case it still matters to you, that scenario might convince Mr. Favre to give it one last try in 2006.
Sports shots columnist Tim Gutowski was born in a hospital in West Allis and his sporting heart never really left. He grew up in a tiny town 30 miles west of the city named Genesee and was in attendance at County Stadium the day the Brewers clinched the 1981 second-half AL East crown. I bet you can't say that.
Though Tim moved away from Wisconsin (to Iowa and eventually the suburbs of Chicago) as a 10-year-old, he eventually found his way back to Milwaukee. He remembers fondly the pre-Web days of listenting to static-filled Brewers games on AM 620 and crying after repeated Bears' victories over the Packers.
