By Andy Tarnoff Publisher Published Dec 08, 2015 at 2:35 PM Photography: David Bernacchi

The opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily reflect the opinions of OnMilwaukee.com, its advertisers or editorial staff.

Let’s get this right out of the way: The GOP will lose the 2016 Presidential election. It’s a done deal, just like in 2004 when Democrats fielded John Kerry as its nominee. The Democratic Party knew that then, and the RNC knows that now. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but there’s another chance in only four years.

This piece isn’t about Hillary Clinton, however. Losing to her is, by far, the least of the Republicans’ problems. If the RNC finds itself in a position supporting the certifiably insane Donald Trump, it may spell the end of the Grand Old Party as we know it.

Here’s the predicament: After Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama in 2012, GOP insiders wisely realized the party needed to reach out to disenfranchised minorities if they hoped to take back the White House in 2016. Minorities count, and they tend to vote for Democrats. Remember, the popular vote is less important than the Electoral College, but in certain swing states, they can make the difference.

And yet, Donald Trump has managed to insult every minority he can think of, and he doesn’t seem to be done yet. Subtract women, Hispanics, Asians, African Americans, Muslims and Jews from the voting electorate, and you can’t win anything. The right-wing, billionaire white male demographic isn’t enough to carry a state, despite what FOX News will tell you.

Well, that’s not exactly true. Trump could actually win a few southern states, maybe, but given how the Electoral College works, a Clinton-Trump contest would be a blowout of historic proportions. Think Reagan-Mondale, but worse.

Unless, of course you're a neo-Nazi blogger like Andrew Anglin, who wrote a post called "Glorious Leader Calls For Complete Ban on All Moslems." On his site, Daily Stormer, he said of Trump, "Finally: someone speaks sense. Make America White Again!"

Don’t think this stuff is making the Republican establishment panicking? Look at the quotes coming from the mainstays of the party.

Even Dick Cheney, who is no liberal, wants nothing to do with Trump.

"This whole notion that somehow we can just say no more Muslims, just ban a whole religion, goes against everything we stand for and believe in," said Cheney. "I mean, religious freedom has been a very important part of our history and where we came from."

Jeb Bush called Trump "unhinged." South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said Trump's rhetoric "is putting our troops serving abroad and our diplomats at risk … For interpreters and others risking their lives abroad to help America – this is a death sentence."

But if the rest of the Republicans are convinced Trump is toxic, what are their other options?

It doesn’t look much better if the Republicans try to nominate Ben "I tried to stab my friends" Carson or Ted Cruz, not that either appear to have a chance. The GOP’s best bets are Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, but unfortunately the RNC has to deal with the fact that its voters aren’t interested in nominating them.

So what happens if the Tea Party faction gets its way and Trump actually is nominated? The Republicans can either tepidly support The Donald, which will result in a tremendous backlash from smart conservatives – or it can sit this one out and regroup.

Mainstream Republicans aren’t insane, racist, xenophobic fascists like Trump, and they won’t vote for him. Even against Hillary Clinton. I could see a schism forming between the extreme right and legit conservatives who care about real issues beyond guns, gays, Muslims and Mexicans. But because Trump would officially run as an approved Republican candidate in the national election, this might actually force the GOP to disband. The Tea Party would become the Republican Party, and the sane Republicans would form a new party. It would be an absolute disaster for the right for years to come.

Alternatively, the Republican Party could refuse to back Trump, even if he’s their candidate. This would take an unprecedented amount of chutzpah, but it could pay long-term dividends. It could support Jeb Bush or Rubio as an independent candidate. It would alienate FOX News and the Koch Brothers and their money. It could also spell the end of the party as we know it, but at least it would salvage Republicans’ hopes in Congress.

Or maybe the Republican elite will find a way to take Trump down, but it had better hurry. Any one of the insane things he’s said would sink a normal candidate in a normal election, but this cycle is anything but normal. The RNC had better dig up a Trump sex tape, a drunken tirade complete with the racial slurs or proof that he’s in cahoots with ISIS. Something. Anything. It can’t waste its efforts fighting Hillary; it needs to turn its attention inward first.

Because this is about to get incredibly ugly, and the Republican Party now has to look at damage control and its long-term survival. One could argue that Trump is exactly the shakeup the Republican party needs, but the furious, frothing right wing of the party doesn’t win elections on a national level.

Historically, Republicans won elections because it spoke with one voice against the hand-wringing splintered Democratic Party. Now, the GOP is in the same place, but it’s worse. The decisions it makes over the next six months will have ramifications to the conservative cause for years to come.

Andy Tarnoff Publisher

Andy is the president, publisher and founder of OnMilwaukee. He returned to Milwaukee in 1996 after living on the East Coast for nine years, where he wrote for The Dallas Morning News Washington Bureau and worked in the White House Office of Communications. He was also Associate Editor of The GW Hatchet, his college newspaper at The George Washington University.

Before launching OnMilwaukee.com in 1998 at age 23, he worked in public relations for two Milwaukee firms, most of the time daydreaming about starting his own publication.

Hobbies include running when he finds the time, fixing the rust on his '75 MGB, mowing the lawn at his cottage in the Northwoods, and making an annual pilgrimage to Phoenix for Brewers Spring Training.