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It is a widely accepted fact that Gov. Jim Doyle encouraged Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, a former 2002 gubernatorial rival, to run against fellow Democratic Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager. But why?
There may be an emotional reason (He doesn't like Peg). But there's a very good strategic reason, too. Look at the election map.
In order to stay governor, Doyle needs to win Milwaukee County in November 2006 by over 53 percent. The number may be as high as 58 percent if there is no major third attraction running like Libertarian Ed Thompson, who peeled off Republican voters in the 2002 election.
In order to get the Milwaukee County margin he needs, Doyle needs to make sure Green Bay-area Congressman Mark Green defeats County Executive Scott Walker in September. By having Falk in the AG race, Doyle has forced Democrats to stay in the Democratic primary, instead of switching over and voting in the GOP primary for Walker, who is very popular in Milwaukee County.
In Wisconsin's open primary system, voters have to stay with one party slate during the primary unlike the general, when they can split their tickets. So, in order to get the candidate he wants to get in November -- Green -- Doyle needs to keep Dems in the Democratic column in September. An additional motivation: for some reason Falk currently is more popular with the women in southeastern Wisconsin than Lautenschlager and thus, should help draw that vote for Doyle come November.
More than one of Doyle's advisers has told me they think Lautenschlager on the ticket hurts Doyle and they think Green is easier to beat than Walker. If Doyle runs against Green, he can run the same campaign he ran against ex-Congressman Tom Barrett in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Green and Barrett have the reputation of congressional "nice guys.'' Doyle will define Green as he did Barrett -- as a nice guy with no executive leadership experience. Furthermore, having been intimately involved in the Barrett campaign for governor, I can tell you it is extremely hard to run for a statewide office when the candidate has to be in Washington, D.C. the majority of the time.
Doyle is counting on Falk to keep Walker from being his gubernatorial opponent. It is all about Doyle's re-election.
Barbara Boxer, an attorney at Reinhart Law in Milwaukee, is a veteran Democratic activist and fundraiser who supports Lautenschlager's re-election.
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