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Craig's snow forecast.
Craig's snow forecast.

Will it snow Thursday?

I got up early this morning to check out the latest on the potential for snow later this week. Here's what I found ...

All systems go for big storm system to impact Wisconsin on Wednesday night and Thursday. There are still plenty of fluctuations in the computer models, leading to typical uncertainty in the system's ultimate track.

Nevertheless, the most reliable models do seem to be converging on a "mostly likely" outcome. This is not the only potential outcome, just the mostly likely based on current evidence.

Here's what I think I know:

  • Everyone will likely get some snow.
  • The amount of snow that accumulates will range greatly across southeastern Wisconsin, perhaps from as little as 2 inches to as much as 12-plus inches.
  • Areas well north and well west will likely have the highest accumulations.
  • Areas around Milwaukee and to the south will likely have the lowest accumulations.
  • The precipitation will begin very late in the day on Wednesday or Wednesday evening, continue through the night and into mid-day Thursday morning.
  • Areas around Milwaukee and to the south will likely have rain initially, perhaps all Wednesday night, before the rain eventually changes to snow.
  • Further inland, it's likely that less rain (or no rain at all) will fall before it becomes all snow. (Leading to the higher snow accumulations there.)

This illustration what I would consider the most likely snow accumulation given the evidence at this time. I present this with the caveat that the computer models still have plenty of time to throw new/different output at us between now and Wed night. If they do, the snow totals below will need to be adjusted.

The map is based on what's seems most likely to occur, given the information available very early Monday morning.


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