{image1} Tuesday will be Jack Zduriencik's seventh draft as Brewers' Scouting Director. Much has been made of the miraculous rebuilding project that Zduriencik has accomplished. The likes of Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy are beginning to show the signs that they will carry this franchise for the next 15 years.
The Brewers own the fifth pick in Tuesday's draft. They hope this will be the last time that they are making a selection in the top ten, but as losing seasons have piled up, so have high draft picks and Zduriencik has hit much more than he has missed.
Attempting to forecast the Baseball draft isn't an exact science. Even the top five will be very unpredictable. Last year the Padres used their first selection on home grown shortstop Matt Bush who definitely was not the most talented player available.
Baseball's unpredictability stems from the many factors that are involved in the process. This year for instance, first round picks from 2004 Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew recently signed with their respective teams (LA/Anaheim Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks) just minutes before the deadline to put their names back into this year's draft.
This will have a large affect on The Arizona Diamondbacks who had to pay prime money for Drew's services and may try to save money on their first pick this year which is first overall.
Same can be said for the Kansas City Royals, who say they are not going to go cheap with their selection. Although, this is the Royals and they are looking to rebuild again so can anyone truly believe GM Allard Baird when he says that?
The unpredictability of high school players also enters into the equation. Some clubs refuse to take right-handed High School pitchers. This theory played a large role in last years draft where two of the top prospects were High School right-handers in Homer Bailey and Mark Rogers whom the Brewers weren't afraid to scoop up at pick No. 5.
Also like other sports, some teams draft for need. You can never have enough good athletes, but a team like Tampa Bay is stacked in the outfield, so taking High School outfielder Cameron Maybin might not be in their best interest when they pick third.
The Brewers also fall under that category. This draft is very deep at third base. Nebraska's Alex Gordon, Virginia's Ryan Zimmerman and Miami's Ryan Braun are all potential top ten selections. Although, Zduriencik has never been known as a guy that drafts for need, unlike his predecessors. The cupboard is bare at the hot corner for the Crew, but that doesn't guarantee them selecting one of those three players.
Lastly and probably most importantly is the Scott Boras factor. There are many teams that refuse to deal with Scott Boras and this year his clients dominate the first round. The Brewers are one of those teams that try to steer away from Boras and his strong arm tactics. One of the reasons that the Brewers selected Rogers over Bailey last year was Rogers' signability.
Boras has 10 out of Baseball America's top 100 prospects. The majority of those ten are predicted to be selected in the first round of the draft. The client roster includes St. John's right-hander Craig Hansen, Baylor right-hander Mike McCormick, Georgia Tech right-hander Jason Neighborgall and shortstop Tyler Green, Tennessee right-hander Luke Hochevar, Wichita State right-hander Mike Pelfrey, Texas catcher Taylor Teagarden and Utah High School left-hander Mark Pawelek.
All of these players stand a chance to slip lower into the first round because of being represented by Boras.
Jim Callis from Baseball America has called the Brewers the most secretive organization in baseball which makes it very difficult to predict what they will do. Not to mention that Zduriencik tends to take the best athlete available regardless of position- something that he has done with Rogers, Weeks, Jones and Krynzel.
Here are a couple possibilities for the Brewers at the fifth pick. Remember, that most likely Justin Upton and Alex Gordon will be off of the board by the time it gets to the Brewers. If either of those two players fall, it would be a no-brainer for Zduriencik.
Also it is very unlikely that the Brewers take a Boras client eliminating the above names and a few college arms that would look good in Brewers' uniforms.
Cameron Maybin
Pos.: OF
Class: SR
B-T: R-R
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 195
School: T.C. Robertson - Arden , NC
Birthdate: 4/4/87
Cameron Maybin is a five tool outfielder that has drawn comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero. Maybin fits the profile of a Zduriencik selection in that he is the best athlete in the draft besides Justin Upton who should be selected first.
The Brewers are pretty deep in center field with the likes of Krynzel and Tony Gwynn Jr., but Maybin could be very special. Maybin hit .646 with 14 HRs and 27 SBs in only 65 at bats. He is a rare combination of size and speed. The Royals may select him with the second pick instead of Alex Gordon to save money.
Ryan Zimmerman
Pos.: 3B
Class: JR
B-T: R-R
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 210
School: Virginia
Birthdate: 9/28/84
Zimmerman is widely known as the best defensive third baseman in the draft. In fact many have called him a future gold glover. Zimmerman has also shown life with the stick. He lead Team USA in hitting with a .486 average and his superior defensive skills won him the third base job in front of Alex Gordon.
His power numbers have just started to improve and would likely improve as time rolls on. He has been compared to a player like Jeff Cirillo. Zimmerman hit .404 with 6 HRs and 54 RBIs in his junior season as a Cavalier. He may not get past the Washington Nationals at the fourth pick.
Ryan Braun
Pos.: 3B
Class: JR
B-T: R-R
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 190
School: Miami
Birthdate: 11/17/83
Braun is as broke into the vaunted Hurricanes lineup as a freshman shortstop and hasn't stopped hitting the ball. He is a fantastic athlete shown by his ability to play both shortstop and third and by his 21 stolen bases.
Many scouts are scared by the hitch he has in his swing, but then again so did Frank Robinson and Henry Aaron. Braun hit .422 with 16 HRs and 69 RBIs to go along with his aforementioned 21 steals. Many scouts and experts predict this will be the direction the Brewers will head unless Upton or Gordon falls from the sky.
Troy Tulowitzki
Pos.: SS
Class: JR
B-T: R-R
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200
School: Long Beach State
Birthdate: 10/10/84
Tulowitzki is a big shortstop much in the mold of former 49er shortstop Bobby Crosby. Many say that Tulo will have more power than his former teammate. He is solid defensively and has a very strong throwing arm. He may outgrow playing shortstop and could end up moving to third base.
Tulo has his junior season cut short by some injuries, but still put up solid numbers hitting .363 with 7 HRs and 25 RBIs. More than what his numbers show are his "Jeter-like" leadership qualities shown by the fact that the 49ers have been dominant since his return. The Mariners are said to be enamored with Tulowitzki and might pull the trigger with the third pick.
Jeff Clement
Pos.: C
Class: JR
B-T: L-R
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 205
School: Southern Cal
Birthdate: 8/21/83
Clement is a power-hitting catcher that uses all fields and does not strike out very much. He could fill a void in the Brewers system that has only two catcher prospects in Lou Palmisano and Angel Salome.
Clement isn't without a few weaknesses. His defense is average although it has improved over his three years with the Trojans. His offensive numbers more that make up for a few defensive deficiencies. Clement hit .368 with 10 HRs and 42 RBIs. The Brewers should have the option to select Clement when the fifth pick rolls around.
Jay Bruce
Pos.: OF
Class: SR
B-T: L-L
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 200
School: Long Beach State
Birthdate: 10/10/84
Bruce is a name that is quickly on the rise. He is another five-tool player that wows you with his athleticism. Again the Brewers don't have a glaring need in center field, but you can never have too many athletic outfielders. Much like Maybin, Bruce fits the mold of a Zduriencik selection in that he can do so many things for your ball club.
Bruce hit .538 with 8 HRs, 24 RBIs and 11 SBs in only 78 at bats. The Crew should have their opportunity to select Bruce with the fifth pick although it would be a surprise.
Predictions
I learned my lesson last year trying to predict how the draft would fall. Like previously stated, there are so many variables that go into the June draft that have nothing to do with talent.
The Brewers could use a third baseman to fill out the infield with Hardy, Weeks and Fielder, but they haven't reached this point in rebuilding by drafting for need. Zduriencik will use his gut instincts and hopefully find another gem. It could be any of the players mentioned above.
If a gun was put to my head and Upton and Gordon were off of the board, I would select Cameron Maybin. He fits the parameters - athletic and not a Boras client. Plus he seems to have the most potential and if this is truly the last time the Brewers should be selecting in the top ten, why not take a shot on what could be the next Griffey.
