I was sitting down with a yellow notepad, trying to figure out who is going to be in the Super Bowl this year. Like Pooh Bear, I thunk, and thunk, and thunk.

Then I remembered an old expression about sculpting. When an artist was asked how he sculpts a statue of a beautiful woman, he replied: “Easy. Just take a block of granite, and carve away everything that does NOT look like a beautiful woman.”

Exactly.

So, without further adieu, let’s go ahead and start peeling away NFL teams that simply do NOT look like they are going to the Super Bowl.

List D: I Would Not Lose Sleep If I Bet My Life Against Them

32. San Francisco. Last year, 32nd in offense, and 32nd in defense. ‘Nuff said.
31. Detroit. With Matt Millen still in charge, the Gods would never allow it.
30. Houston. Will forever regret the day they got too smart to take Reggie Bush.
29. Oakland. Two players: Aaron Brooks and Randy Moss. Uh, no.
28. Tennessee. Breaking in a rookie QB. Not this year, or even next.
27. NY Jets. With 35 year old HC, bum-shouldered QB, and aging RB. Sure.
26. Buffalo. Will make their fans excited to go home and shovel the driveway.
25. Cleveland. The Browns don’t make it when they are good. They aren’t good.
24. Green Bay. The Favre “retirement soap opera” has just begun. Brace yourself.

List C: I Would Sincerely Like to Place A Large Wager That Says No

23. Miami. Fans are severely over-estimating last year’s closing push.
22. Arizona. On paper, it looks promising. But it’s not a term paper.
21. Jacksonville. Well, if they somehow did, wouldn’t Jimmy Smith be pissed?
20. Kansas City. Just can’t stop any good team when it really needs to.
19. Minnesota. Trying the opposite of what didn’t work before.
18. St. Louis. The dying remnants of the Greatest Show On Turf.
17. Baltimore. Steve McNair and Ray Lewis are sooo, like, 2001.
16. New Orleans. Automatically 4 games better than last year, but no.

List B: Dangerous Lurkers, That Wouldn’t Surprise Me At All

15. San Diego. If Philip Rivers can play just a bit, LT and Gates will do the rest.
14. Atlanta. Forget Ron Mexico for a second, the defense could be nasty.
13. Tampa Bay. Gruden is good enough to get even Chrissy Simms close.
12. Philadelphia. Can they say: “Okay, forget everything that just happened?”
11. NY Giants. Another “paper” champion. Seems like they are primed.
10. Chicago. Will be instantly 50% better on offense without Kyle Orton.
  9. Dallas. Parcells maximizes talent, and the talent is now there.

List A: And Now, Your True Contenders

8. Cincinnati. Scoring still matters, and the ‘Gals do that in spades.
7. New England. Ever a threat, but has their cockiness on players caught up?
6. Pittsburgh. Aside from Ben’s noggin, hangover effect biggest challenge.
5. Denver. Does Jake have one more notch of improvement in him?
4. Carolina. The fact everybody is loving them, makes me nervous.
3. Washington. Monster year is taking shape under Gibbs in 3rd season.
2. Seattle. Cruising through laughable division is like a bye to the NFC Champ.

1. Indianapolis.

There’s plenty to knock about the Colts. Peyton Manning is a choker. Tony Dungy is too nice. They’ll regret letting Edgerrin James walk. The defense didn’t make the strides everyone thought last year. And on and on …

I look at Indy as the logical contrarian pick.  When they had home field last year, when they were totally healthy, and when it seemed inevitable, they botched it. (Thanks Mike Vanderjagt.)

So what did everybody do? They left the room in a rush, like somebody had just blasted a post-lunch burrito heater. Well guess what? I’m still here. The Colts can find other guys to run the 5 yard dives Edge once did. And Peyton Manning – choker or not – almost instantly gives a team 8 wins.

(Seriously. Do you really think Manning will ever play on another 7-9 or worse team in his life?)

They have a schedule strength of 22nd this year, a new kicker, and chip on their shoulder. Plus, everybody has written them off. To me, it looks like a great time to “buy in.”